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May 18, 2005

Adrian Update - 1:38PM EDT

Tropical Storm Adrian has entrained in some dry air overnight and this has slightly weakened the central convection. However, it is significant to note that her central pressure has dropped to 1000 mb and maximum wind speeds have increased to 50 mph during the same time. It is possible that we are seeing a reorganization take place and I expect to see further strengthening today. There are currently Tropical Storm Watches in effect for the Pacific coast of Guatemala and El Slavador. My previous strength and track forecast still hold true. The biggest threat from Andrian remains the heavy rainfall over the mountains of Central America. I am still maintaining the possibility that we will be dealing with Hurricane Andrian by the time she makes landfall. I expect Andrian to top out at around 70 mph at landfall. She is currently over very warm water but entering into some very strong stearing winds. Right now I don't expect Adrian to survive the trip across Central America but my confidence of this forecast remains low. NHC's official forecast track currently looks good for the next two days. However, anything beyond Friday seems very premature considering the unknowns regarding Adrian's strength after crossing the mountains of Central America.

Here is the latest information from the National Hurricane Center:

AT 8 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.5 WEST OR ABOUT
295 MILES... 475 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE GUATEMALA-EL SALVADOR
BORDER.

ADRIAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...OUTER RAINBANDS CONTAINING GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT THE COASTAL AREAS OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES
... 75 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
Tracking God's Fury:
ATLANTIC
Tropical Storm Maria
Tropical Storm Nate
Hurricane Ophelia
EASTERN PACIFIC
  • None
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