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May 18, 2005

An early start to the season...

Well, its an early start to the hurricane season. Here it is mid-May and we have the first tropical storm of the year. While this may seem early to have tropical development, remember Tropical Storm Anna back in April of 2003. Recently the National Hurricane Center upgraded Tropical Depression One-E to Tropical Storm Adrian due to clear organizaton and intensification on the satellite pictures. Tropical Storm Adrian is currently sitting in the eastern Pacific headed towards Central America. Adrian should pass over Central America and head out in the Caribbean. However, considering the terrain and current upper level patterns over the Caribbean, I don't expect Adrian to survive the trip strong enough to reintensify.

Here is the latest on Adrian:
At 8:00pm PDT (0300Z) the center of Tropical Storm Adrian was located near 10.3N and 94.7W. This places Adrian about 440 miles (770 km) southwest of Guatemala and El Salvador. Adiran is moving northeast at about 5 mph (7 km/h). Adrian should continue to pick up speed over the next few days as she moves into stronger upper level currents. Maximum sustained winds are currently near 40 mph (65 km/h) with, as always, higher gusts. Minimum central pressure (as estimated by satellite) is about 1004 mb (29.65").

Adrian should continue to strengthen as she approaches the Central American coast. Winds by landfall should be near hurricane strength at about 70 mph. At this time there is about a 50% chance that Adrian will be a weak hurricane when she makes landfall. The biggest threat from Adrian will be heavy rains over Central America. As we saw from Mitch, inland flooding is now the leading cause of death from hurricanes. The moutainous areas of Central America are very prone to orographic enhancement of precipitation and flash flooding. When Adrian moves out into the Caribean she may still be considered a weak tropical storm. It is still to early to talk about what will happen after this but at this time I do not expect to see significant development.

For that latest of Adrian as she develops, check with the National Hurricane Center.
Tracking God's Fury:
Tropical Storm Maria
Tropical Storm Nate
Hurricane Ophelia
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