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May 19, 2005

Hurricane Adrian Update - 4:00p EDT

Right now Adrian is getting ready to flood Central America. People in the moutains of Central America need to be prepared for devestating floods and mud slides. Remembering back to Mitch and Jeanne, a hurricane does not have to have very powerful winds to cause extreme damage.

This afternoon's hurricane hunter plane reported the presence of 20nm eye. This is clearly not a well defined eye on the satellite imagery. Also, Adrian seems to be getting slightly deformed. Outflow from the hurricane is interacting with an upper level trough over the Gulf. You can clearly see outflow from Adrian covering south Florida. Right now showers and thunderstorm associated with Adrian are already impacting the area. For those of you in the Keys and Miami, enjoy the first raindrops of the hurricane season!

Right now I having a hard time seeing how Adrian could survive the trip over Cental America as a tropical storm. Currently I am giving Adrian a 15% chance of entering the Caribean as a hurricane. I will post more information about the storm as I get a chance to take a closer look.

Tracking God's Fury:
Tropical Storm Maria
Tropical Storm Nate
Hurricane Ophelia
  • None
  • --
    Ask Bryan:
    What steers hurricanes?
    What is eyewall replacement?
    Jordan Golson
    Bryan Woods