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June 12, 2005

Arlene, We Hardly Knew Ye - updated 12:00pm EDT


Tropical Storm Arlene has left without even saying good-bye. Now all eyes turn to the Caribbean where another area of thunderstorms is currently brewing. However, upper level winds in this region are not favorable for development. However, surface pressures in this area are unusually low and the next couple of days could show a different picture as the disturbance drifts over the same area that bore Arlene.

From NHC:
THERE ARE TWO DISTINCT AREAS OF DISTURBED WEATHER IN THE TROPICS
TODAY. THE FIRST ONE IS THE LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA THAT HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD
FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF SURFACE CIRCULATION
BUT SURFACE PRESSURES ARE LOW IN THE AREA. A SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE DISTURBANCE DRIFTS
TOWARD THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE OTHER ONE IS A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS CENTERED
ABOUT 450 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PRIMARILY
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT
FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.

Elsewhere, the east Pacific and rest of the Atlantic look quiet.

Flooding and up to half a foot of rain is expected to fall in the Mississippi River Valley in the next day or so.

Interestingly, last years first named storm 'Alex' didn't form until August. Of course, we all remember another late 'A' storm -- Andrew. He didn't hit until late August 1992. This looks to be a busy season...

UPDATE: 11:50 pm EDT - NOAA surface buoyees in the Caribbeans have been reporting continuously falling surface pressures throughout the day. I am looking for Brett around here somewhere...
Tracking God's Fury:
ATLANTIC
Tropical Storm Maria
Tropical Storm Nate
Hurricane Ophelia
EASTERN PACIFIC
  • None
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