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June 23, 2005

Beatriz now weakening

AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF
BEATRIZ HAS BECOME EXPOSED EAST OF AN AREA OF WEAK AND POORLY
ORGANIZED CONVECTION. WHILE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN
55 KT...A 1316Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS SHOWED AT BEST 45 KT WINDS...
POSSIBLY RAIN-CONTAMINATED...IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. BASED
ON THE DECAY IN THE CLOUD PATTERN SINCE THEN...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 40 KT. THE STORM IS MOVING INTO COOLER
WATER AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
REVISED TO HAVING BEATRIZ BECOME A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW IN 72
HR...AND IT MAY WEAKEN FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 290/11. BEATRIZ SHOULD TURN MORE WESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT 48 HR AS IT WEAKENS AND THE LOW-LEVEL STEERING
BECOMES DOMINANT. MOST DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE TURNS THE REMNANTS OF
BEATRIZ SOUTHWARD AFTER 48 HR IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER CYCLONE
FORMING TO THE EAST. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN FORECASTING
GENESIS AND IN FORECASTING HOW CLOSE THE TWO SYSTEMS MAY BE...THE
TRACK FORECAST WILL CALL FOR A MORE GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST AFTER 48 HR.

THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN REVISED DOWNWARD BASED ON THE QUIKSCAT
DATA.
Tracking God's Fury:
ATLANTIC
Tropical Storm Maria
Tropical Storm Nate
Hurricane Ophelia
EASTERN PACIFIC
  • None
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