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June 23, 2005

Beatriz peaking out

BEATRIZ APPEARS TO HAVE REACHED PEAK INTENSITY THIS MORNING NEAR 45
KT. A TRMM OVERPASS NEAR 07Z DEPICTS A SHEARED SYSTEM WITH THE
ESTIMATED CENTER BENEATH THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...
WHICH HAS DECREASED SINCE 09Z. WHILE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
REMAIN 55 KT...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT DUE TO THE
LOCATION OF THE SURFACE CENTER RELATIVE TO THE DETERIORATING
CONVECTIVE PATTERN.

THE TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING AT AN ESTIMATED 295/12 AND SHOULD CROSS
THE 26C SEA SURFACE ISOTHERM LATER TODAY...AS IT ENTERS AN
INCREASINGLY STABLE AND DRY ENVIRONMENT. THIS MOTION IS A LITTLE
TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. TIME HAS JUST ABOUT
RUN OUT FOR ANY FURTHER INTENSIFICATION...AND GIVEN THE RECENT
DECREASE IN CONVECTION A WEAKENING TREND COULD BE IMMINENT. SHIPS
GUIDANCE MAINTAINS A TROPICAL STORM THROUGH 48 HOURS...WHILE THE
GFDL DOES SO ONLY FOR ONLY 12 MORE HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THESE SOLUTIONS. BEYOND ABOUT 24
HOURS...BEATRIZ SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND TURN TOWARD THE WEST AS THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH BREAKS DOWN...AND THE EVENTUAL REMNANT
LOW SHOULD THEN DRIFT WESTWARD ALONG WITH THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE
WINDS.
Tracking God's Fury:
ATLANTIC
Tropical Storm Maria
Tropical Storm Nate
Hurricane Ophelia
EASTERN PACIFIC
  • None
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