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June 08, 2005

Tropical update - 11:26 pm EDT



Based on the latest IR image, to me it is clear that TD One had reached tropical storm strength. Look for tropical storm advisories to be issued soon. However, NHC's latest discussion seems to depict a different story.
DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS INDICATE THAT THE
DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY-ORGANIZED...WITH A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT
WINDS NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER. THEY DID REPORT ONE 35 KT WIND AT
THE 1000 FT FLIGHT LEVEL...ON THEIR LAST OUTBOUND LEG ABOUT 70 N MI
NE OF THE CENTER. BASED ON THAT OBSERVATION...THE INTENSITY IS
INCREASED TO 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
HOWEVER...THE CLOUD PATTERN IS NOT IMPRESSIVE AND THE BANDING
FEATURES WARRANT ONLY A T1.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR...ASSOCIATED WITH A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 90W...
CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. SOME ABATEMENT OF THE
SHEAR IS EXPECTED BUT GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL BE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR
STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ONE. THIS IS A LITTLE HIGHER
THAN THE SHIPS GUIDANCE...AND A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE GFDL
FORECAST.
They are far less impressed than I am. It will be interesting to see who will win. Also, Tropical Storm Warnings are now in effect for western Cuba.
Tracking God's Fury:
ATLANTIC
Tropical Storm Maria
Tropical Storm Nate
Hurricane Ophelia
EASTERN PACIFIC
  • None
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