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July 07, 2005

Dennis maintains intensity, watches up for Florida

It looks like NHC is seeing the same shift in track I talked about before. Right now it is time for Florida to start paying attention here. The real factor controlling the future strenth of Hurricane Dennis is going to be his track over Cuba. An elongated track could gut Dennis and save Florida from heavy damage. However, if Hurricane Dennis stays over open water he could strengthen significantly to a major hurricane. NHC's official forecast calls for Hurricane Dennis to hit Florida with sustained winds of 120 mph and higher gusts starting Saturday morning. Now is the time to begin preparations and evacuations in the Florida Keys.

Given the MM5's advanced prediction of the track shift, I have decided to include a little analysis of the latest MM5 run on Hurricane Dennis. As you can see from its forecast track, it current wants Florida is get raked up the whole western coast.

The wind swath clearly shows hurricane force winds up the entire Florida coast.

However, this intensity graph clearly shows that FSU's MM5 has been consistently underestimating the strength of Hurricane Dennis. This means that the above wind swath really needs to be broadened to include must more powerful hurricane winds at the coast.

Tracking God's Fury:
Tropical Storm Maria
Tropical Storm Nate
Hurricane Ophelia
  • None
  • --
    Ask Bryan:
    What steers hurricanes?
    What is eyewall replacement?
    Jordan Golson
    Bryan Woods