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July 07, 2005

Dennis up to category 2, takes a slight jog and shift in track

Recon has reported that Hurricane Dennis is now a category two on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Sustained winds are up to 105 mph and central pressure had dropped to 968 mb. This is consistent with the rapid intensification I forecast yesterday. Those of you in Jamaica have run out of time to prepare and should already be feeling the effects of the storm. Hurricane Denis has also made a recent jog to the northwest and most of the models have made a shift in track. Last night I called the MM5 an outlier for bringing Hurricane Dennis over Panama City. However, as you can see below, the models are all shifting for a Florida landfall first at Key West and then later in the panhandle. The UKMET is a holdout but is also an old run that has not been updated since last night. As we should remember from Hurricane Charley's unexpected right turn, the entire Gulf Coast from Houston all the way around to Key West, including Tampa and the rest of Florida, should be paying special attention to this storm. More will follow as I have a chance to take a better look at the storm.

Tracking God's Fury:
Tropical Storm Maria
Tropical Storm Nate
Hurricane Ophelia
  • None
  • --
    Ask Bryan:
    What steers hurricanes?
    What is eyewall replacement?
    Jordan Golson
    Bryan Woods