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July 04, 2005

Double Trouble for the U.S. Coast

There are some very interesting happenings in the tropics right now. I figure the best way to handle this is from the top.

Everyone say "Hi" to Dora, our newest tropical storm in the Pacific. Dora is currently brushing the Mexican west coast and will soon be heading out to see. As Dora moves off the coast, she should gradually intensify before heading out over cooler water.

Next, Tropical Storm Watches have been posted for the Louisiana coast in anticipation of soon-to-be-named Tropical Storm Cindy. NHC has dispatching hurricane hunters all over Topical Depression Three in search of a new center of circulation. The storm clearly seems to be reorganizing in the Gulf of Mexico, but so far the hurricane hunters have yet been able to located a close circulation around the forming center. The dramatic reformation has forced NHC to reconsider its forecast for the storm. People in the central Gulf Coast should pay close attention to the storm. The new track brings the storm very close to New Orleans, however, puts it in an environment that is less favorable for development. Details will follow as soon as the hurricane hunters are able to detect a new closed circulation.

Increasingly my attention has been turning towards the eastern Caribbean where a strong and well organized tropical wave is causing concern, at least for me. NHC seems to be keeping an eye on the system, but not as close as they likely should. Several models, including the FSU's MM5, and the GFS, develop this system into a hurricane in a few days. The GFS then tracks this hurricane directly at Florida in five days, as shown below. This system is already showing strong convection and banding features. Those with interests in the region should pay close attention to the development of this system.

Tracking God's Fury:
Tropical Storm Maria
Tropical Storm Nate
Hurricane Ophelia
  • None
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    Ask Bryan:
    What steers hurricanes?
    What is eyewall replacement?
    Jordan Golson
    Bryan Woods