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July 08, 2005

Hurricane Dennis down to category 2, close to moving off-shore - updated

Measuring the strength of Hurricane Dennis has been difficult over Cuba as Fidel is not fond of U.S. military aircraft over his island. There is currently a hurricane hunter aircraft waiting right off the Cuban coast waiting for Dennis to reimerge. The eye of Hurricane Dennis is about to move back out over open ocean where it can be tracked. During his passage over Cuba, Dennis has been seriously weakened to maximum sustained winds 110 mph and minimum central pressure of 962 mb. While I do expect Dennis to reintensify, to what degree that will happen is questionable. The core still looks tight and intact, but deep convection is very limited. Key West is currently feeling sustained winds well over 40 mph, and tropical storm force winds exist in squalls all the way up to Miami. The 12z model runs should give us our first clear picture as to where Hurricane Dennis is likely to make landfall. My current best bet remains somewhere in the general area of Ft. Walton, FL. As you can see below, the NOGAPS and UKMET bring the hurricane ashore near Biloxi, while the GFS, BAM, GFDL, and MM5 strike the Florida panhandle. More will follow as Hurricane Dennis enters the Gulf of Mexico and more is available from recon.

1:00am EDT Update:
The 1:00am intermediate advisory from NHC has shown nothing different. The eye of Hurricane Dennis has finally moved off-shore. This will likely be must last updated for the night.
Tracking God's Fury:
ATLANTIC
Tropical Storm Maria
Tropical Storm Nate
Hurricane Ophelia
EASTERN PACIFIC
  • None
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