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July 19, 2005

Hurricane Emily upgraded to Cat. 3, could reach Cat. 4 by landfall

The Special Advisory from NHC has again increased the winds in Hurricane Emily to 125 mph and lists the central pressure at 945 mb. Hurricane Emily could becomes a Category 4 hurricane before landfall.

UPDATE: The 10PM CDT advisory lists Emily at 125 mph and 944 mb. Recently Emily has seemed to stall off the coast and held its intensity steady. An outer eyewall is in the process of forming and may be in place before Emily reaches the coast. I honestly am not sure why Emily has stalled out but it seems to be consolidating its convection towards the core. Along with the stall, Emily has been trending a little bit further south and this could be very good news for Brownsville. One thing that does seem fairly certain is that Emily should make a march across Mexico after landfall and bring much needed rain to the area. I am slightly worried about the potential for inland flooding and mudslides if the rain proves to be too heavy. Ironically at this point the models are showing their greatest divergence yet in regards to where in Mexico Emily will track.
Tracking God's Fury:
Tropical Storm Maria
Tropical Storm Nate
Hurricane Ophelia
  • None
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    Ask Bryan:
    What steers hurricanes?
    What is eyewall replacement?
    Jordan Golson
    Bryan Woods