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July 15, 2005

Hurricane Emily weakens to Category 3 - updated

Hurricane Emily has weakened to 125 mph and 968 mb. Emily should roughly maintain intensity for the next day or so. As Emily moves away from South America, we may see her reform and solidify. It is very hard for a major hurricane to maintain intensity so early in the year. An upper level low over the western Caribbean is increasing shear over Emily. This was evident in the lack of outflow to the west yesterday and the general deterioration of the convection today. Hurricane Emily should stabilize later today as an eyewall replacement cycle completes and the hurricane adjusts with lower wind speeds.The latest computer model runs almost unanimously bring Hurricane Emily through the Yucatan straight and at Texas. This northward trend in the models has been happening for a couple days now, however, verification has showed them to be consistently too far north. Should Hurricane Emily make landfall over the Yucatan, it is unlikely that she would significantly restrengthen over the Gulf of Mexico. NHC has noticed this trend in the models and it placing their official forecast track south of consensus, allowing Hurricane Emily to just clip Mexico.
Tracking God's Fury:
ATLANTIC
Tropical Storm Maria
Tropical Storm Nate
Hurricane Ophelia
EASTERN PACIFIC
  • None
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    Ask Bryan:
    What steers hurricanes?
    What is eyewall replacement?
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    Contributors:
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    Bryan Woods
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