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July 07, 2005

Hurricane Warning for the lower Keys, Dennis goes Cat. 3, baby boom to follow?

At 2:30pm EDT a hurricane hunter reported a central pressure of 956 mb showing a dramatic drop in pressure. A similar report at 3:55 EDT listed 957 mb. At the same time Hurricane Dennis is showing a very tight eye and seems to be completing an eyewall replacement cycle. However, recent satellite observations seem to be suggesting that the new eyewall could be collapsing as Dennis may be feeling the effects of nearby Jamaica and Cuba. The latest advisory lists Hurricane Dennis with a central pressure of 957 mb and sustained winds of 115 mph. This makes Dennis a dangerous category 3 storm. Hurricane Warnings have also been posted for parts of the Florida Keys. With the apparent right pull, I would like everyone to look at the storm track given my Florida State's MM5 model. There is a significant chance that Hurricane Dennis could rake the southern Cuba coast before moving towards Florida. Storm surges will likely be 5-7 feet and some additional strengthening is still possible and even likely before landfall. The official NHC forecast calls for Hurricane Dennis to have sustained winds of over 130 mph at landfall with Cuba. This would Hurricane Dennis a category 4 storm! After striking Cuba, NHC is forecast Dennis strike Florida with 120 mph sustained winds. While the forecast track is for landfall in the eastern Florida panhandle, I am very nervous for a strike against the Florida peninsula. Even with a panhandle landfall, hurricane force winds are still a very real possibility for the gulf coast of the entire coast. This can be seen clearly in the wind swath projections of the MM5 model.

Finally, I could resist this one story from the AP that I found. It turns out that many hospitals in Florida as seeing a baby boom of over 20% from the previous year! They are attributing this the hurricane baby boom of 2005. For all of you out there who are going to have no power but plenty of wine and candles, you are not alone.

Tracking God's Fury:
Tropical Storm Maria
Tropical Storm Nate
Hurricane Ophelia
  • None
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    Ask Bryan:
    What steers hurricanes?
    What is eyewall replacement?
    Jordan Golson
    Bryan Woods