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July 12, 2005

Tropical Storm Emily strengthens slightly

The latest advisory from NHC increase Tropical Storm Emily to 60 mph and 997 mb. I am not sure that I agree with this, but such is life. Emily is continuing to move just south of west at 20 mph. Emily could become a hurricane soon, but I expect it would need to move further north first. The Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch for Tobago has been changed to a Hurricane Warning. Also, a Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning is not in effect for Trinidad. Little has changed from my previous discussion other than Emily showing a new but smaller flare of convection. Especially give Emily recent southward jog, I think most of the U.S. is in the clear for a while. While it is possible that we may see a Gulf Coast landfall, it is not likely right now. I personally suspect that eventually we will see a Central American landfall from then Hurricane Emily. I suspect that NHC's official forecast track is too far north. NHC's official forecast calls for Emily to become a hurricane in 24 hrs and a major hurricane in 72 hours.
Tracking God's Fury:
Tropical Storm Maria
Tropical Storm Nate
Hurricane Ophelia
  • None
  • --
    Ask Bryan:
    What steers hurricanes?
    What is eyewall replacement?
    Jordan Golson
    Bryan Woods