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August 12, 2005

Irene continues her slow march towards the eastern U.S.

Little unexpected changes have occured in the tropics in the past day. Right now Fernanda is a weak hurricane and about to begin weakening. Greg seems to be ignoring Fernanda and slowing strengthening as he moves out towards the west. Greg is expected to become a minimal hurricane in a couple days before weakening over cooler water.

Irene is also playing right into her forecasted role. Maximum sustained winds are up to 50 mph and her central pressure is down to 1000 mb. Right now Irene has few cold cloud tops and a center remains hard to find, but a banding signature with healthy outflow remains. It looks as if conditions are becoming more favorable for strengthening as Irene approaches the East Coast. However, the models are diverging on both track and intensity at this point. One set of models brings Irene right into the southeastern U.S. while another curve it towards the north. However, the GFS which is turning Irene, also want to disipate the storm. Once again it seems as if Irene is not going to sit well with the guidance.
Tracking God's Fury:
Tropical Storm Maria
Tropical Storm Nate
Hurricane Ophelia
  • None
  • --
    Ask Bryan:
    What steers hurricanes?
    What is eyewall replacement?
    Jordan Golson
    Bryan Woods