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August 14, 2005

Irene hanging tough, TD Ten looking very much the same

Irene is showing determination had has recently sent off another burst of deep convection near the center. Irene is also showing a low-level eye that is impressive for a tropical storm.

Tropical Depression Ten seems to be following right in Irene's tracks. As NHC put it:
THE DEPRESSION IS BEGINNING TO LOOK LIKE IRENE-JUNIOR AS IT
UNDERGOES SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL SHEAR BENEATH THE OTHERWISE
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN. THROW IN SOME DRY MID-LEVEL
AIR AND YOU HAVE THE MAKINGS FOR A DIFFICULT INTENSITY FORECAST.
THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AFTER 48 HOURS BY THE SHIPS MODEL
...SO THE INTENSITY IT GRADUALLY INCREASED AFTER THAT. HOWEVER...
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS BELOW THE SHIPS AND THE GFDL MODELS
...THE LATTER OF WHICH MAKES THE CYCLONE A 70-KT HURRICANE BY 120H.
I couldn't agree more. TD Ten looks to be having trouble seperating from the tropical wave but still is very early in its formative stages. I wish I could say with any confidence what it is going to do.

Tracking God's Fury:
ATLANTIC
Tropical Storm Maria
Tropical Storm Nate
Hurricane Ophelia
EASTERN PACIFIC
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