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August 23, 2005

Tropical Depression 10 / 12 forms in the Bahamas

Sometimes people do things so incredibly inexplicable that you can't help but to smile and laugh. NHC pulled one of those today. NHC is issuing advisories on "Tropical Depression 12" which up until this afternoon was referred to as "possibly the remnants of Tropical Depression 10." Oh, the joy of meteorology!

In the words of NHC:
THE NWS RULES GOVERNING THE NAMING OF TROPICAL CYCLONES SPECIFY THAT...WITHIN A BASIN...WHEN A CYCLONE FORMS FROM THE REMNANT OF A PREVIOUSLY EXISTING CYCLONE...THE OLD NAME/NUMBER IS RETAINED. TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE HAS A COMPLEX GENESIS THAT LIKELY INCLUDES A MID-LEVEL REMNANT OF FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN. A REVIEW OF SATELLITE AND RAWINSONDE DATA OVER THE PAST WEEK OR SO SUGGESTS THAT A SECOND DISTURBANCE APPROACHED AND COMBINED WITH THE MID-LEVEL REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN ON 20 AUGUST. BECAUSE IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO DETERMINE WHICH OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS IS ASSOCIATED WITH TODAY'S GENESIS...WE HAVE ELECTED TO USE THE DESIGNATION TWELVE RATHER THAN TEN FOR THE NEW DEPRESSION. THIS SITUATION DIFFERS FROM LAST YEAR'S REGENERATION OF IVAN...IN WHICH THE LOW-LEVEL REMNANT OF THAT SYSTEM REMAINED A DISTINCT FEATURE THAT COULD BE FOLLOWED CONTINUOUSLY UNTIL IT REGENERATED.
Yup, and I am the Easter Bunny.

Anyhow, the system has sustained winds of 30 mph and a central pressure of 1007 mb. TD 12 (right...) is expected to steadily strengthen before moving across South Florida as a strong tropical storm (possibly a weak hurricane) and out into the Gulf of Mexico. Please note, THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST! The model track are very divergent and intensity is very hard to forecast at this stage. There is no strong circulation present with this system, and no deep convection on the west side.
Tracking God's Fury:
ATLANTIC
Tropical Storm Maria
Tropical Storm Nate
Hurricane Ophelia
EASTERN PACIFIC
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