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May 31, 2005

May 31 severe weather update

As you can see below today is pretty active severe weather day. Below is the circus issued by SPC:

Current Situation:






For all you tropical weather junkies.... - 12:55am EDT



For all of you who cannot get enough tropical weather coverage, NWS in Guam has issued advisories for a tropical storm in the northwest Pacific. Enjoy!

May 30, 2005

What Memorial Day is All About

Read this. Crying optional.

Godspeed sir.

Severe Weather Update - 7:30pm MDT








Hurricane Experts: Hurricanes not affected by global warming

Reuters:
If hurricanes again pound the United States this summer, their roar is likely to be accompanied by the din of another storm -- an angry debate among U.S. scientists over the impact of global warming.

Last season's $45 billion devastation, when 15 tropical storms spawned nine hurricanes in the Atlantic and Caribbean, prompted climatologists to warn of a link to warming temperatures.

But hurricane experts say the unusual series of hurricanes, four of which slammed into Florida in a six-week period, was the result of a natural 15- to 40-year cycle in Atlantic cyclone activity.

After a lull between 1970 and the mid-1990s, the number of storms picked up dramatically from 1995 and higher-than-normal activity is expected for the next five to 30 years as a phenomenon known as the "Atlantic multidecadal mode" holds sway.

"Really, for the folks that are doing work on hurricanes, there isn't a debate (about global warming)," said Chris Landsea of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's hurricane research division in Miami.
More...

May 29, 2005

Tornado Watch for Texas - 3:54 pm CDT


The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Tornado Watch for southeast Texas. Shear profiles and very unstable air are favoring tornado tornado development at this time. Updates to follow.

Elevated risk of severe weather today - 1:15 CDT

Could our severe weather drought be breaking? High humidity levels today look to be fueling more severe weather today. Below are the graphics or check out the Storm Prediction Center's forecast discussion.

Overall Convective Outlook:


Hail Outlook:


Wind Outlook:


Tornado Outlook:

Still little severe weather... - 1:15 am EDT

Many of you may have noticed a lack of severe weather coverage lately. Well, to be honest, there just hasn't been much going on. To give you an idea, below is the best picture I have seen all week from storm chasers around the country.

New hurricane study proposed for New Orleans - 12:00 am CDT

The Times-Picayune in New Orleans is just published a story about the need for a system to protect southern Louisiana from a direct hurricane strike. It is no secret that the New Orleans area is very vulnerable to a hurricane strike. A direct hit from a category 5 storm would flood the city from both sides and leave the entire metro area under water for months. In the case of such a hit, after the levees were repaired, an optimistic projection is that the flood water would receed in 6 weeks. Worst case scenario: Galveston hurricane scaled to today. In 1900, 8000 people died when the country had a population of 76 million. The New Orleans article discussed a new proposal to build a third bridge as part of I-10 and attach to the bridge a wall that can be lowered down to block storm surge from entering Lake Pontchartrain. Am I the only one that remembers that in Ivan a large chunk of I-10 was relocated to the bottom of the Gulf? the only one to remember the same thing happening years ago in the Florida Keys? The only one to remember how many times sections of I-95 in Connecticut have gone to the bottom? In order for this system to work, the entire wall would have to hold and the seal would have to be very tight. Another alternative: raise the levees by 10 feet. Problem: in the case of floods the levees on the Mississippi have broken before (think 1993). In any case, the city hasn't finished preparing for a category 3 storm yet and any expansion would cost at LEAST 2 billion dollars. (yeah, right, just $2 billion, think Big Dig: original cost $2.2 billion, current cost $14.6 billion and rising).

May 27, 2005

"Make that an iced coffee"

AP:
Make that an iced coffee. While the Northeast was bidding farewell to unseasonably chilly temperatures, Seattle residents dusted off the sunscreen and shorts Friday as the National Weather Service issued its first-ever heat advisory for the city.

The advisory covering the urban corridor from Tacoma north to Everett was prompted by a second day of record temperatures. Thursday's high temperature of 89 degrees at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport broke a 58-year-old record. A high of 87 was forecast for Friday.

A little severe weather teaser - 11:15 am CDT

I heard from someone who works for a storm chasing tour company, and he said that they were visiting tourist attractions instead of chasing yesterday. So far this chase season has been very poor from all I hear. I will try get some more nice photos and video as they are published. Today's outlook isn't a whole lot better.


Strong late-season Nor'Easter batters New England - 12:05 pm EDT

This month has turned out to be one of the coldest May's in the last century in much of New England. Just to add some icing to the cake, a very strong nor'easter just finished up smashing the New England coast. In the Boston area, this storm was the strongest late May Nor'Easter is nearly 40 years according to Walt Drag of the National Weather Service forecast office in Taunton, MA. As a disclaimer, Walt often goes a little overboard with his forecasts. There is a reason that he is in charge of forecast verification in Boston; it helps keep him somewhat planted on the ground. For those of you stuck in New England with the crappy weather, here is something to cheer you up.

May 25, 2005

Moderate severe weather risk in Texas today - 3:15pm

SPC has issued advisories regarding a possible severe weather threat in Texas today. Due to strong lift and dry air at mid levels, strong downdrafts and large hail are likely in isolated locations. Wind shear profiles also support the idea of isolated rotation.

Stories in the news - 10:45am

First off, at the conference I am at, there was a major revelation during one of yesterday's sessions. It is not directly weather related, but still scientifically cool. Voyager I reached the solar termination shock in December.

Secondly, many of you may have already seen this, but Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA) wants to outlaw the National Weather Service from issuing any products that could be reproduced by private companies. This is widely thought to be sponsored by AccuWeather, a major PA-based weather company that draws most of its employees from Penn State. However, the sponsoring companies seem not to want to be responsible for warnings or stop NWS from issuing warning to prevent damage to life or property. It seems that they want to force corporate profits up while not assuming the liability. Some of you may be aware that private industries have already forced through laws to prevent NOAA from issuing commodities forecasts.

It also seems that those of you in the northeast have been a little wet and chilly. Welcome to New England! I expected this weekend to be the sixth weekend in a row with rain in the Boston area.

An associate of mine sent me a story about a recent trend of increased tornadic activity in the Washington, DC area. Fair warning, this seems to be a sensationalist story not completely based in significant global climate change science. I suspect that the recent outbreak of tornadic activity is exclusively tropically related. After hearing some of the talks at the conference, I plan to write much more about that when I return. Just to get you thinking, everything we do has indirect effects. It seems that industrial emissions in the Midwest U.S. significantly altered the monsoonal climate in central Africa and dampened hurricane activity during the late 20th century.

May 24, 2005

Tornado Warning 7:07PM EDT


SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
449 PM MDT TUE MAY 24 2005

COC125-242330-
/O.CON.KGLD.TO.W.0016.000000T0000Z-050524T2330Z/
YUMA CO-
449 PM MDT TUE MAY 24 2005

...A TORNADO WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 530 PM MDT FOR YUMA COUNTY...

AT 448 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 2 MILES WEST OF VERNON
APPROACHING VERNON. PEOPLE IN OR NEAR VERNON SHOULD TAKE SHELTER
IMMEDIATELY IN A BASEMENT OR ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME.
ABANDON MOBILE HOMES.

OTHER SEVERE STORMS WERE LOCATED NEAR IDALIA AND LAIRD WITH QUARTER
SIZE HAIL LIKELY IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WINDS.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
BEECHER ISLAND AROUND 510 PM MDT...
LAIRD AROUND 515 PM MDT...

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS THUNDERSTORM WILL PRODUCE DAMAGING
WINDS RESULTING IN AREAS OF NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY IN BLOWING DIRT. USE
EXTREME CAUTION IF YOU MUST TRAVEL AND BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING
VISIBILITY.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW! IF YOU WAIT
TO SEE OR HEAR IT COMING...IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO GET TO A SAFE PLACE.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM MDT TUESDAY EVENING
FOR NORTHEASTERN COLORADO.

LAT...LON 4031 10251 3985 10266 3963 10261 3963 10207
4024 10206

Elevated threat of severe weather today - 5/24/05

Ok, I am at my conference in New Orleans still. I am going to make a post later about an interesting discussion that has been happening. It involves industrial pollution causing millions of deaths due to starvation. That may sound crazy but I believe it.

Anyhow, check out SPC today. It looks like there could be some fun fireworks later on. There are moderate chances of severe hail and wind damage across areas of the plains. The east coast is also not immune. Check it out and see what develops!

Severe weather: 5/23/2005


Found this image on the Stormtrack.org Forums. It's from the storms north of Burlington, CO at sunset. Purty.


A pretty good day weather wise, no confirmed tornados but high winds in several areas and hail (including +2" in Yuma, Colorado) and a possible funnel cloud in Virginia.

May 23, 2005

I just thought I'd pop on a link to SPC today. It is looking like a decent spring severe weather day.


Severe Weather Update - 235AM EDT


A severe thunderstorm watch was issued by the SPC for portions of northwestern Arkansas, south central and southeastern Kansas, southwestern Missouri and north central and northeastern Oklahoma.

Conditions are right for severe thunderstorm development and hail to 2.5 inches in diameter, wind gusts to 70 mph and dangerous lightning.

The watch is in effect until 5AM EDT.

Earlier this evening a Tornado Warning was issued for Cherokee County in east central Oklahoma and Wagoner County in northeast Oklahoma.


No tornados formed but golf-ball sized hail was reported in several counties in Kansas and New Mexico and winds up to 80mph in Cowley County, Kansas.

May 22, 2005

May 21 severe weather summary - 12:50am EDT

Later on this morning I am leaving to go to the American Geophysical Union conference in New Orleans. I will be there all week but try to make updates from the conference. In the interim, jlgolson will still be around to keep you up to date. For now I just want to post a summary of today's severe weather. Today was a huge bust as you will soon see. Expectations were high with a severe thunderstorm watch and a tornado watch but there was almost nothing.
Click on the map for full details:

May 21, 2005

Quick severe weather update - 8:05pm CDT

It looks like SPC has underestimated the extent of the dry line. There is now a squall line breaking out clear across the great plains. Great.... Storm chasers call today a complete bust. I sincerely doubt many storm chasers had decent intercepts today.

Severe weather update - 7:45 CDT

SPC is finally coming in line with my previous forecast and backing down from their Tornado Watch. It turns out I was right about SPC missing their mark. Look for a Severe Thunderstorm Watch to be issued in the near future.

Severe Weather Update - 6:00p CDT

I am starting to think that SPC may have missed their mark. I am seeing a line developing in Kansas but shifted south of the current tornado watch. I will keep you updated as the line develops. We could see severe weather by the bottom of the hour.

Severe weather watches issued - 5:30p CDT

I wasn't planning on talking about talking much more about the severe weather threat today because it honestly looked a little boring. However, given the new Tornado Watch I decided to post an update. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch in northern Minnesota and a Tornado Watch in western Iowa, eastern Nebraska, and northeastern Kansas. The shear profiles are looking stronger than expected which will lead to stronger rotation and a greater threat of tornados. While these storms have yet to develop, they should develop along surface front and become severe very quickly (perhaps in under 20 minutes). The big danger with this line will be the potential for tornados after dark. The big question involved here is whether the storms will break the strong capping inversion in the area.


Another beautiful photo by Stuart Robinson - 3:00p

Here is another beautiful picture from Stuart Robinson as found on the StormTrack.org forums. This is a gorgeous low-precipitation (LP) supercell north of Belle Fourche, SD. The rotating updraft is classic.

Severe Weather outlook for Saturday 5/21/05- 11:05am EDT

Today looks like it could be a little exciting for hail and straight-line winds but tornadic development looks limited. Especially after dark tonight I expect a mesoscale convective system (MCS) to develop in a line from western Iowa through eastern Kansas. Below I attached the severe weather and hail outlook maps from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) in Norman, OK. For those of you who have never seen SPC, imagine a single room filled with lots of computers with three meteorologists inside. Yeah, that's it. I was very disappointed when I visited. However, these guys do know their stuff. They are responsible for issuing watches while warnings and details on individual storms are left up to the individual forecast offices.


May 20, 2005

Picture of an beautiful tornado forming



I just loved this picture from Stuart Robinson of Leicester, England that he posted on the StormTrack.org forums.

At least two killed in mudslides from Hurricane Adrian

The latest reports indicate that the two reported fatalities from Adrian occured before the hurricane had even made landfall. However, the mountains of Central America were quick to weaken the storm as soon as it made landfall. Below is a graph of the wind fields from the storm. However, please remember that it has been the rain, not the winds, that is the real killer in hurricanes.


Adivsories on Adrian discontinued- 11:00a EDT


As of 8:00 PDT, NHC has discontinued all advisories on now Tropical Depression Adrian. As such, Adrian will be removed from our active storms list. There are no signs of circulation on the satellite imagery. Should the system redevelop in the Caribbean, it would be renamed. We will post more information on the aftermath as it becomes available.

Adrian Update: 200AM EDT


The 2AM EDT Advisory was just released and estimated minimum central pressure is 987mb with 75mph sustained winds, maintaining her hurricane status. We predict weakening to continue through the night as the storm moves ashore.

May 19, 2005

Adrian Update: 1100PM EDT

According to the 11pm EDT advisory, Hurricane Adrian has maintained a central pressure of 985mb and maximum sustained winds of 80mph.

Adrian is becoming less organized but is still maintaining a strong central core of convection. Landfall is imminent at this point. Given the strong core still intact, this could be a messy situation. Those in the area should be vigilant. Look for Adrian to rapidly weaken once the center of circulation is inland.

Adrian: United States Float3


NHC:
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES... WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF NEAR 20 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS... CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH ADRIAN. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

Adrian approaching Central America


Adrian approaching the coast of Central America. As Adrian is making landfall, she is also weakening. The maximum sustained winds are down slightly to 80 mph and the central pressure is up to 985 mb. The full text of the latest advisory can be found here.

A note about tropical system strength

I just wanted to warn everyone not to pay too much attention to the wind speeds as a measure of the strength of a storm. Especially in hurricanes, wind speeds can be deceptive. Eye wall replacement cycles can cause winds to fluctuate without seeing any real change in the strength of a storm. Eyewalls can undergo replacement cycles multiple times a day. When an eyewall replaces, you will see an initial shrinking of the eye. With this shrinking of the eye, wind speeds will increase due to the conservation of angular momentum (much like a figure skater pulling in her arms). After this the eye will greatly expand and winds will drop accordingly. However, the central pressure should not change as significantly. The real judge of the strength of a hurricane is the central pressure. As the minimum central pressure drops (the system deepens), you will see a increase in the intensity of the storm. It is worth while to note that in the last 24 hours the central pressure of Hurricane Adrian has dropped about 20 mb.

For comparison, normal pressure at sea level is 1013.25mb, Hurricane Andrew was 922mb when he made landfall in Miami, and the lowest recorded pressure was in Typhoon "Tip" in Japan. The pressure dropped to 870 mb.

Adrian Update: 500PM EDT

Adrian has strengthened with sustained 85MPH winds, a drop in pressure to 983mb and a tightened eye to 10nm as she approaches El Salvador and Guatemala.

Contrary to what was reported earlier (sourced from Todd Gross of WHDH-TV Boston) "Only if the system maintains tropical cyclone status throughout its passage over land would it retain the name Adrian in the Atlantic Basin" (From Discussion 10). If she does not maintain tropical cyclone status (tropical storm or above) Hurricane Adrian would then be called Tropical Depression 1.

To reiterate:
IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT THE BIGGEST THREAT FROM ADRIAN IS TORRENTIAL RAINFALL... WHICH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING AND POTENTIALLY DEVASTATING MUD SLIDES OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRIAN OF CENTRAL AMERICA.

5PM EDT Advisory for Hurricane Adrian
HURRICANE ADRIAN ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT THU MAY 19 2005

...ADRIAN HEADING FOR CENTRAL AMERICA WITH 85 MPH WINDS...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF GUATEMALA FROM SIPACATE EASTWARD ALONG THE EL SALVADOR COAST TO THE EL SALVADOR-HONDURAS BORDER.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF HONDURAS...INCLUDING THE GOLFO DE FONSECA...AND FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF GUATEMALA FROM SIPACATE WESTWARD TO THE GUATEMALA-MEXICO BORDER.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AMERICA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

AT 2 PM PDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ADRIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 90.3 WEST OR ABOUT 90 MILES... 150 KM... SOUTHWEST OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR.

ADRIAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH... 15 KM/HR... AND A GENERAL NORTHEASTWARD MOTION...WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED... IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK... THE CENTER OF ADRIAN WILL REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA LATER TONIGHT.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH... 140 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS... IN A SMALL AREA JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER. ADRIAN IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRONGER WINDS... ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS... ARE LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY BEFORE LANDFALL.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM... FROM THE CENTER... AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES... 110 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 983 MB... 29.03 INCHES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES... WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF NEAR 20 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS... CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH ADRIAN. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES... CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

Hurricane Adrian Update - 4:00p EDT

Right now Adrian is getting ready to flood Central America. People in the moutains of Central America need to be prepared for devestating floods and mud slides. Remembering back to Mitch and Jeanne, a hurricane does not have to have very powerful winds to cause extreme damage.

This afternoon's hurricane hunter plane reported the presence of 20nm eye. This is clearly not a well defined eye on the satellite imagery. Also, Adrian seems to be getting slightly deformed. Outflow from the hurricane is interacting with an upper level trough over the Gulf. You can clearly see outflow from Adrian covering south Florida. Right now showers and thunderstorm associated with Adrian are already impacting the area. For those of you in the Keys and Miami, enjoy the first raindrops of the hurricane season!

Right now I having a hard time seeing how Adrian could survive the trip over Cental America as a tropical storm. Currently I am giving Adrian a 15% chance of entering the Caribean as a hurricane. I will post more information about the storm as I get a chance to take a closer look.

Adrian Update: Discussion 200PM EDT

2PM EDT Discussion for Hurricane Adrian
HURRICANE ADRIAN SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM PDT THU MAY 19 2005

IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT THE BIGGEST THREAT FROM ADRIAN IS TORRENTIAL RAINFALL... WHICH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING AND POTENTIALLY DEVASTATING MUD SLIDES OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRIAN OF CENTRAL AMERICA.

Adrian Update: 200PM EDT



2PM EDT Advisory for Hurricane Adrian
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ADRIAN SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM PDT THU MAY 19 2005

...AIR FORCE PLANE INDICATES THAT ADRIAN IS A HURRICANE...

AT 11 AM PDT... 1800Z... THE GOVERNMENTS OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR HAVE UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING TO A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF GUATEMALA FROM SIPACATE EASTWARD TO THE EL SALVADOR-HONDURAS BORDER.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF HONDURAS... INCLUDING THE GOLFO DE FONSECA... AND FOR GUATEMALA FROM SIPACATE WESTWARD TO THE GUATEMALA-MEXICO BORDER.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AMERICA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

AT 11 AM PDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ADRIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 90.6 WEST OR ABOUT 120 MILES... 195 KM... SOUTHWEST OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR.

ADRIAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH... 15KM/HR... AND A GENERAL NORTHEASTWARD MOTION...WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED... IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ADRIAN WILL BE VERY NEAR THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA LATER TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH... 120KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADRIAN IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRONGER WINDS... ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS... ARE LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES... 110 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF NEAR 20 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS... CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH ADRIAN. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES... CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

FLASH: ADRIAN GAINS HURRICANE STATUS - 1:45PM EDT

We now are dealing with the first hurricane of the year. Hurricane Adrian is now taking aim at Central America. Below is the release from NHC:
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT ADRIAN HAS REACHED HURRICANE STRENGTH AND A SPECIAL ADVISORY ON HURRICANE ADRIAN WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

Adrian Update: 800AM EDT

8AM EDT Advisory for Tropical Storm Adrian
TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM PDT THU MAY 19 2005

...ADRIAN MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD CENTRAL AMERICA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF EL SALVADOR. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF GUATEMALA AND THE PACIFIC COAST OF HONDURAS...INCLUDING THE GOLFO DE FONSECA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AMERICA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

AT 5 AM PDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.3 WEST OR ABOUT 175 MILES...285 KM... SOUTHWEST OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR.

ADRIAN IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH... 14KM/HR... AND A GENERAL NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE FORECAST TRACK BRINGS THE CENTER OF ADRIAN VERY NEAR THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ADRIAN IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AT THE TIME OF LANDFALL. A UNITED STATES AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL FLY
INTO ADRIAN LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF NEAR 20 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH ADRIAN. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

Adrian Update: 500AM EDT

5AM EDT Advisory for Tropical Storm Adrian
TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT THU MAY 19 2005

...ADRIAN MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF EL SALVADOR. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF GUATEMALA AND THE PACIFIC COAST OF HONDURAS...INCLUDING THE GOLFO DE FONSECA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AMERICA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

AT 2 AM PDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.6 WEST OR ABOUT 215 MILES... 350 KM... SOUTHWEST OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR.

ADRIAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH... 11KM/HR... AND A GENERAL NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE FORECAST TRACK BRINGS THE CENTER OF ADRIAN VERY NEAR THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY LATE THURSDAY EVENING OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND ADRIAN IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AT THE TIME OF LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB... 29.44 INCHES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES... WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF NEAR 20 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS... CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH ADRIAN. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

Adrian is not looking like a threat to the Atlantic

I have seen some discussion from people wondering if Adrian is really a threat to the Atlantic. In response I attached below a chart of sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Tropical systems need water to be at least 27C to support development. Water are plenty water enough in the eastern Pacific right now. However, as you can see, water in the Atlantic are still very cool. It is possible that we may see Adrian briefly reform in a Tropical Storm in the Caribean before htting Cuba but that is about all I see being possible. With that in mind, this does not preclude heavy rains from causing damage if Adrian makes landfall a second time.

Some recent pictures from storm chasers...

This week hasn't been too exciting for severe weather but I thought I'd link to some nice pictures I found on the StormTrack.org forums.

This one is of some nice mammata. Yummy.


How could this one NOT drop?


Shelf cloud anyone?


How about some videos?
A weak little devil.
A small tornado and small hail.

Adrian Update: 200AM EDT


2AM EDT Advisory for Tropical Storm Adrian
TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM PDT WED MAY 18 2005

...ADRIAN HEADED FOR THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
COAST OF EL SALVADOR. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
PACIFIC COAST OF GUATEMALA AND THE PACIFIC COAST OF HONDURAS...
INCLUDING THE GOLFO DE FONSECA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AMERICA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

AT 11 PM PDT... 0600Z... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 91.8 WEST OR ABOUT 230 MILES... 370 KM... SOUTHWEST OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR.

ADRIAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH... 13 KM/HR... AND A GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND ADRIAN COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE IT REACHES THE COAST.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF NEAR 20 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH ADRIAN. THIS SYSTEM ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL OVER OTHER PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVEL IS POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

May 18, 2005

Adrian Update: 1100PM EDT

11PM EDT Advisory for Tropical Storm Adrian
TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT WED MAY 18 2005

...ADRIAN HEADED FOR THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF EL SALVADOR. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF GUATEMALA AND THE PACIFIC COAST OF HONDURAS... INCLUDING THE GOLFO DE FONSECA.

INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AMERICA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

AT 8 PM PDT... 0300Z... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.2 NORTH LONGITUDE 92.0 WEST OR ABOUT 255 MILES... 410 KM... SOUTHWEST OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR.

ADRIAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH... 13 KM/HR... AND A GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST... AND ADRIAN COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE IT REACHES THE COAST.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB... 29.44 INCHES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF NEAR 20 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH ADRIAN. THIS SYSTEM ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL OVER OTHER PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVEL IS POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

Technical Discussion from the National Hurricane Center

Adrian Update: 9:43pm EDT

AccuWeather:
The first tropical storm of the season in the eastern Pacific has formed. It is named Adrian and is located a few hundred miles south of Guatemala. Upper-level steering winds are pulling the storm toward the coast of Central America though, and Adrian is expected to make landfall along the coast of El Salvador later Thursday. The steering winds are not expected to change much into the weekend, so Adrian should remain on a northeasterly path. Although it will weaken considerable crossing the mountainous terrain of Central America, its moisture and at least some of its energy are expected to emerge into the western Caribbean Friday, and it could bring heavy rain toward Cuba this weekend.

TS Adrian Update: 8:00pm EDT

8PM EDT Advisory for Tropical Storm Adrian
TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM PDT WED MAY 18 2005

...ADRIAN MOVING CLOSER TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF EL SALVADOR. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF GUATEMALA AND THE PACIFIC COAST OF HONDURAS... INCLUDING THE GOLFO DE FONSECA.

INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AMERICA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

AT 5 PM PDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 92.1 WEST OR ABOUT 260 MILES... 420 KM... SOUTHWEST OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR.

ADRIAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO RESUME LATER TONIGHT WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND ADRIAN COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON THURSDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB... 29.44 INCHES.

OUTER RAINBANDS CONTAINING GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE ALREADY AFFECTING THE COASTAL AREAS OF GUATEMALA... AND SHOULD BEGIN AFFECTING EL SALVADOR TONIGHT. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES... WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF NEAR 20 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS... CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH ADRIAN. THIS SYSTEM ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL OVER OTHER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

Name Change?

If TS Adrian were to cross over Central America and maintain her tropical characteristics her name would change to Arlene as she would then become an Atlantic storm.

EDIT: This is inaccurate. See here for more info.

Hurricane Watch posted for El Salvado - 5:15PM EDT


A Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch is now in effect for El Salvador. The National Hurricane Center has now come in line with my forecast of Adrian reaching hurricane strength before landfall. Adrian is maintaining intense banding and is carrying very intense rain. NHC is also expecting Adrian to transition to an extra-tropical storm after she crosses the Caribean. This is to be expected with the cold water temperatures of May. As I mentioned before, strong upper level winds will propel Adrian quickly and rip apart any concentrated convection associated with tropical systems.
Tracking God's Fury:
ATLANTIC
Tropical Storm Maria
Tropical Storm Nate
Hurricane Ophelia
EASTERN PACIFIC
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