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StormTrack has moved: http://thestormtrack.com/


September 10, 2005

Moving Day

StormTrack has moved to it's new home at http://thestormtrack.com/.
This will be the last post on Blogger, but all the old posts will stay up.
Change your bookmarks!

Ophelia sets her sights on the Carolinas

Hurricane Ophelia seems to have Carolina on her mind. A Hurricane Watch is now in effect for all of South Carolina up to Cape Lookout, NC. The storm is down to 976 mb but winds continue to hover at hurricane threshold intensity. The best guess right now if for a landing somewhere in the Carolinas are Ophelia backs up towards the coast. The storm remains very well organized but she is having issues intensifying in the face of moderate shear and plenty of dry air from the continent.




P.S. Those of you who have noticed a decline is posting over the past week will be happy to know it has been for a good cause. In the face of the success of this site, some capital improvements are in the works. We are working on moving to a dedicated domain name and a new server in the coming days. When the move officially occurs, it will be announced on this site.

September 08, 2005

Ophelia upgraded to a hurricane

Hurricane Ophelia remains nearly stationary over the Gulf Stream, about 70 mile east-northeast of Cape Canaveral, FL.

Sustained winds are now up to 75 mph and the central pressure is down to 985 mb. Ophelia is expected to wander off the southeast coast for the next several days and could eventually pose a threat to the U.S. Interests anywhere in the Southeast should pay close attention to the storm. The models continue to be all over the board for track, but I see no reason to not expect further gradual intensification.

Once we see a solid movement in the storm, we should better be able to forecast the track.

Hurricane Nate spares Bermuda

As of this morning, the hurricane watch for Bermuda has been dropped. It looks like Nate's 85 mph sustained winds are going to stay well off shore and Bermuda will only get grazed.

September 07, 2005

Tropical Storm Ophelia continuing to confuse the models

I wish I knew what to say about Tropical Storm Ophelia. So far she continues to maintain the status quo. I have no idea where she is going to go. As NHC put it:
MODELS CONTINUE IN GREAT DISAGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THE TRACK. THE
GFS WHICH LOOPED THE CYCLONE BACK TO THE WEST IN THE PREVIOUS
RUN...IS NOW SHOWING A TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST. THE NOGAPS WHICH
EARLIER TURN OPHELIA TO THE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM FLORIDA IS BRINGING
THE CYCLONE BACK TO THE U.S. COAST. THE GFDL STUBBORNLY INSISTS ON
A TRACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARD FLORIDA...AND THE STORY GOES
ON AND ON. SINCE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT HAVE THE LUXURY OF
MAKING SUCH LARGE CHANGES IN TRACK EVERY SIX HOUR...THE BEST OPTION
FOR WEAK STEERING CURRENT SCENARIOS IS TO MAINTAIN THE CYCLONE
NEARLY STATIONARY. THIS IS BASICALLY THE SOLUTION OF THE
CONSENSUS.

ALL INTERESTS IN NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DEVELOPING CYCLONE.


Just look at their forecast track. You rarely see a such a "beats the hell out of me."

Hurricane Nate threatens Bermuda

Hurricane Nate has now strengthened to 980 mb with maximum sustained winds of 85 mph. A Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch have been posted for Bermuda. Those on the island should pay close attention as the storm draws near.

Tropical Storm Ophelia threatening Florida

With the upgrade of TD Sixteen, we now have a tropical storm threatening the east coast of Florida.

The models are split as to what direction this storm will head. Right now you will notice two distinct schools of thought. One camp brings the storm across Florida and towards the Gulf Coast (which would not be good for the rescue and repair efforts.) The other camp bring Ophelia up the east coast and/or out to sea.

NHC is just slowly continuing the storm up the coast, which seems like a diplomatic solution. This storm isn't going anywhere in a hurry so for now I would recommend just sitting tight. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the east coast of Florida from Sebastian Inlet northward to Flagler Beach. A Tropical Storm Watch continues from Flagler Beach to Fernandina Beach.

Nate setting his sights on Bermuda

With Nate approaching hurricane strength, Bermuda is preparing for a direct hurricane strike. Nate is currently packing winds of 70 mph and a central pressure of 990 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch is currently in effect for Bermuda. Look for that watch to be upgraded to account for hurricane strength soon.

September 06, 2005

Tropical Storm Warning issued for Florida

With the formationg of TD 16, it seems that NHC is expecting Ophelia to be born soon. At 11AM EDT, a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the east coast of Florida from north of Jupiter northward to Titusville, including Merritt Island. The map will be posted below when it becomes available.

Tropical Depression 16 forms off Florida coast

While NHC has not year released it, the Navy Research Lab Monterey Marine Meteorology Division is indicating that TD 16 has formed by renaming their satellite images. Why not?


Advisory Update:
TD 16 is currently listed at 30 mph and 1007 mb. Presently the storm is stationary but below is the model charts forecasting movement. As you can see, take a guess.

Insensity varies based on forecasted track.

September 05, 2005

Tropical Storm Nate forms off the Southeast coast

It seems like this tropical season is continuing its record pace. By tonight we already have Tropical Storm Nate and looks likely that Ophelia will be born within a couple of days. The first advisory for Tropical Storm Nate shows a storm with winds of 40 mph and a central pressure of 1005 mb.

The current NHC forecast calls for strengthening to a strong tropical storm but the models do not seem very reliable for this storm. Just take a look at the intensity forecasts below.

NHC's official forecast track seems like a shot in the dark at this time. Note the large circles depicting very little certainty with a slowly moving storm.

Their uncertainty clearly stems from the computer models which seem to have no good handle on the storm.

Maria becomes a major hurricane

The latest advisory has upgraded Hurricane Maria to a category three storm with winds of 115 mph and a central pressure of 960 mb. Maria is expected to continue to track out to sea and should only remain a major hurricane for 24 hours or so. As she stands, the eyewall has already become a little ragged and she is showing signs of a loss of structure.

Hurricane Maria strengthens

Hurricane Maria now has sustained winds of 100 mph and a central pressure of 975 mb. Since it remains absolutely no threat to land, we will not pay much attention to this storm.

September 04, 2005

Maria reaches hurricane strength

While she is not the most symetric storm, Maria has reached hurricane strength.

She is likely to continue to slowly strengthen for the next couple of days.

Right now she is expected to continue to curve out to see and not be any significant threat to land.

September 03, 2005

Maria approaching hurricane strength

While it continues to pose no threat to land, Tropical Storm Maria is approaching hurricane strength. Currently, winds are estimated at 70 mph and central pressure is 995 mb. The SHIPS model bring Maria up to 110 mph within two days. Banding and outflow are greatly improved today. While previous guidance was dissipating the storm, it looks like NHC did well with siding with the renegade guidance in this case. Shipping interests should monitor the storm.

Maria slowly gaining strength, no threat to land

For those of you tracking in the middle of the Atlantic, Tropical Storm Maria is slowly strengthening and could become a hurricane. As of the 11AM EDT advisory, Maria had sustained winds of 60 mph and a central pressure of 997 mb.

September 02, 2005

Maria...

I just met a storm named Maria. I don't think this Maria is going to be a problem. Honestly, between Lee and Maria, it looks like NHC is just trying to pack in a few extra storms.

Tracking God's Fury:
ATLANTIC
Tropical Storm Maria
Tropical Storm Nate
Hurricane Ophelia
EASTERN PACIFIC
  • None
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