StormTrack

Moving Day

2005-09-10T17:34:00.000-04:00

StormTrack has moved to it's new home at http://thestormtrack.com/.
This will be the last post on Blogger, but all the old posts will stay up.
Change your bookmarks!

Ophelia sets her sights on the Carolinas

2005-09-10T11:33:00.000-04:00

Hurricane Ophelia seems to have Carolina on her mind. A Hurricane Watch is now in effect for all of South Carolina up to Cape Lookout, NC. The storm is down to 976 mb but winds continue to hover at hurricane threshold intensity. The best guess right now if for a landing somewhere in the Carolinas are Ophelia backs up towards the coast. The storm remains very well organized but she is having issues intensifying in the face of moderate shear and plenty of dry air from the continent.

P.S. Those of you who have noticed a decline is posting over the past week will be happy to know it has been for a good cause. In the face of the success of this site, some capital improvements are in the works. We are working on moving to a dedicated domain name and a new server in the coming days. When the move officially occurs, it will be announced on this site.

Ophelia upgraded to a hurricane

2005-09-08T17:10:00.000-04:00

Hurricane Ophelia remains nearly stationary over the Gulf Stream, about 70 mile east-northeast of Cape Canaveral, FL.

Sustained winds are now up to 75 mph and the central pressure is down to 985 mb. Ophelia is expected to wander off the southeast coast for the next several days and could eventually pose a threat to the U.S. Interests anywhere in the Southeast should pay close attention to the storm. The models continue to be all over the board for track, but I see no reason to not expect further gradual intensification.

Once we see a solid movement in the storm, we should better be able to forecast the track.

Hurricane Nate spares Bermuda

2005-09-08T09:25:00.000-04:00

As of this morning, the hurricane watch for Bermuda has been dropped. It looks like Nate's 85 mph sustained winds are going to stay well off shore and Bermuda will only get grazed.

Tropical Storm Ophelia continuing to confuse the models

2005-09-07T17:39:00.000-04:00

I wish I knew what to say about Tropical Storm Ophelia. So far she continues to maintain the status quo. I have no idea where she is going to go. As NHC put it:

MODELS CONTINUE IN GREAT DISAGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THE TRACK. THE
GFS WHICH LOOPED THE CYCLONE BACK TO THE WEST IN THE PREVIOUS
RUN...IS NOW SHOWING A TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST. THE NOGAPS WHICH
EARLIER TURN OPHELIA TO THE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM FLORIDA IS BRINGING
THE CYCLONE BACK TO THE U.S. COAST. THE GFDL STUBBORNLY INSISTS ON
A TRACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARD FLORIDA...AND THE STORY GOES
ON AND ON. SINCE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT HAVE THE LUXURY OF
MAKING SUCH LARGE CHANGES IN TRACK EVERY SIX HOUR...THE BEST OPTION
FOR WEAK STEERING CURRENT SCENARIOS IS TO MAINTAIN THE CYCLONE
NEARLY STATIONARY.  THIS IS BASICALLY THE SOLUTION OF THE
CONSENSUS.

ALL INTERESTS IN NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DEVELOPING CYCLONE.

Just look at their forecast track. You rarely see a such a "beats the hell out of me."

Hurricane Nate threatens Bermuda

2005-09-07T15:58:00.000-04:00

Hurricane Nate has now strengthened to 980 mb with maximum sustained winds of 85 mph. A Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch have been posted for Bermuda. Those on the island should pay close attention as the storm draws near.

Tropical Storm Ophelia threatening Florida

2005-09-07T10:25:00.000-04:00

With the upgrade of TD Sixteen, we now have a tropical storm threatening the east coast of Florida.

The models are split as to what direction this storm will head. Right now you will notice two distinct schools of thought. One camp brings the storm across Florida and towards the Gulf Coast (which would not be good for the rescue and repair efforts.) The other camp bring Ophelia up the east coast and/or out to sea.

NHC is just slowly continuing the storm up the coast, which seems like a diplomatic solution. This storm isn't going anywhere in a hurry so for now I would recommend just sitting tight. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the east coast of Florida from Sebastian Inlet northward to Flagler Beach. A Tropical Storm Watch continues from Flagler Beach to Fernandina Beach.

Nate setting his sights on Bermuda

2005-09-07T10:12:00.000-04:00

With Nate approaching hurricane strength, Bermuda is preparing for a direct hurricane strike. Nate is currently packing winds of 70 mph and a central pressure of 990 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch is currently in effect for Bermuda. Look for that watch to be upgraded to account for hurricane strength soon.

Tropical Storm Warning issued for Florida

2005-09-06T10:41:00.000-04:00

With the formationg of TD 16, it seems that NHC is expecting Ophelia to be born soon. At 11AM EDT, a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the east coast of Florida from north of Jupiter northward to Titusville, including Merritt Island. The map will be posted below when it becomes available.

Tropical Depression 16 forms off Florida coast

2005-09-06T10:37:00.000-04:00

While NHC has not year released it, the Navy Research Lab Monterey Marine Meteorology Division is indicating that TD 16 has formed by renaming their satellite images. Why not?

Advisory Update:
TD 16 is currently listed at 30 mph and 1007 mb. Presently the storm is stationary but below is the model charts forecasting movement. As you can see, take a guess.

Insensity varies based on forecasted track.

Tropical Storm Nate forms off the Southeast coast

2005-09-05T23:30:00.000-04:00

It seems like this tropical season is continuing its record pace. By tonight we already have Tropical Storm Nate and looks likely that Ophelia will be born within a couple of days. The first advisory for Tropical Storm Nate shows a storm with winds of 40 mph and a central pressure of 1005 mb.

The current NHC forecast calls for strengthening to a strong tropical storm but the models do not seem very reliable for this storm. Just take a look at the intensity forecasts below.

NHC's official forecast track seems like a shot in the dark at this time. Note the large circles depicting very little certainty with a slowly moving storm.

Their uncertainty clearly stems from the computer models which seem to have no good handle on the storm.

Maria becomes a major hurricane

2005-09-05T23:23:00.000-04:00

The latest advisory has upgraded Hurricane Maria to a category three storm with winds of 115 mph and a central pressure of 960 mb. Maria is expected to continue to track out to sea and should only remain a major hurricane for 24 hours or so. As she stands, the eyewall has already become a little ragged and she is showing signs of a loss of structure.

Hurricane Maria strengthens

2005-09-05T11:03:00.000-04:00

Hurricane Maria now has sustained winds of 100 mph and a central pressure of 975 mb. Since it remains absolutely no threat to land, we will not pay much attention to this storm.

Maria reaches hurricane strength

2005-09-04T12:56:00.000-04:00

While she is not the most symetric storm, Maria has reached hurricane strength.

She is likely to continue to slowly strengthen for the next couple of days.

Right now she is expected to continue to curve out to see and not be any significant threat to land.

Maria approaching hurricane strength

2005-09-03T17:08:00.000-04:00

While it continues to pose no threat to land, Tropical Storm Maria is approaching hurricane strength. Currently, winds are estimated at 70 mph and central pressure is 995 mb. The SHIPS model bring Maria up to 110 mph within two days. Banding and outflow are greatly improved today. While previous guidance was dissipating the storm, it looks like NHC did well with siding with the renegade guidance in this case. Shipping interests should monitor the storm.

Maria slowly gaining strength, no threat to land

2005-09-03T10:48:00.000-04:00

For those of you tracking in the middle of the Atlantic, Tropical Storm Maria is slowly strengthening and could become a hurricane. As of the 11AM EDT advisory, Maria had sustained winds of 60 mph and a central pressure of 997 mb.

Maria...

2005-09-02T23:58:00.000-04:00

I just met a storm named Maria. I don't think this Maria is going to be a problem. Honestly, between Lee and Maria, it looks like NHC is just trying to pack in a few extra storms.

TD 14 forms in the Atlantic

2005-09-01T16:40:00.000-04:00

Tropical Depression 14 has formed in the Atlantic but thus far looks unimpressive. I will keep an eye on the storm and for those of you who would like to take a look, refer to NHC.

Looting out of control, third levee breached

2005-08-31T21:06:00.000-04:00

The mayor of New Orleans today ordered 1500 police officers to give up rescue operations in order to control rioting. This comes as a third levee has breached and 90% of Gulf of Mexico oil production has stopped. At this hour the Army Corps of Engineers is attempting to seal off the canal in order to repair the breach. This was not done earlier as engineers has hoped the use the canal to drain the city.

There is a good link to New Orleans satellite imagery that the Drudge Report is linking.

Beyond this, I am at a loss for words to describe the situation at hand. I fear we may see many more deaths from disease in the coming days.

Tropical Storm Lee forms in the Atlantic

2005-08-31T18:11:00.000-04:00

Just to make everyone aware, Tropical Storm Lee has formed in the middle of the Atlantic. The storm is very weak, not likely to strengthen, and will really affect just the fish. Check with the National Hurricane Center if you really care.

New Orleans water level stabilizes

2005-08-31T14:00:00.000-04:00

First the good news, the water level is New Orleans has stabilized. The bad news is that it is now level with the lake. Attempts are still underway to patch the levee. In other news, the Superdome is being evacuated to the Astrodome in Houston. Roving gangs have taken control of the city and it is just generally a bad situation. I will have more to post when I have more time this afternoon.

Patching the levee unsuccessful, emergency response losing control

2005-08-30T21:52:00.000-04:00

The worst case scenario is playing out in New Orleans tonight. Devastation is complete and emergency response officials are losing control. Rescuers have been ordered to ignore bodies for now and focus on getting all survivors out of the area. Plans are still underway for the complete evacuation of the Superdome and all hospitals.

The attempt to patch the levee was unsuccessful and the pumps in the area have failed. The rising water is expected to cause the failure of all pumps in the area. Up to 15 feet of additional water can be expected in many areas. By noon tomorrow there should be 9 feet of water on St. Charles Ave. All of Orleans Parish and very possibly Jefferson Parish are expected to be completely submerged, possibly to the level of 3 feet above sea level. The entire east bank looks to be a loss. On the west bank of the river, conditions are far better than expected. While wind damage is wide spread, flooding seems to be well under control.

All across the city, police are losing control. There are widespread reports of shooting, looting, carjackings, and more in almost all areas. Martial law has been declared and the situation looks very dire. This comes in the face of the governor ordering the complete evacuation of Orleans and Jefferson Parishes.

How you can help the hurricane survivors

2005-08-30T17:03:00.000-04:00

I know we all want to help those who have survived the storm. Accordingly, below is a list of aid agencies published by CNN. I personally recommend the Red Cross.

The Federal Emergency Management Agency lists these organizations for those seeking to assist victims of Hurricane Katrina:

Donate cash

American Red Cross (800) HELP NOW (435-7669) English; (800) 257-7575 Spanish

Operation Blessing (800) 436-6348

America's Second Harvest (800) 344-8070

To donate cash or volunteer

Adventist Community Services (800) 381-7171

Catholic Charities, USA (703) 549-1390

Christian Disaster Response (941) 956-5183 or (941) 551-9554

Christian Reformed World Relief Committee (800) 848-5818

Church World Service (800) 297-1516

Convoy of Hope (417) 823-8998

Lutheran Disaster Response (800) 638-3522

Mennonite Disaster Service (717) 859-2210

Nazarene Disaster Response (888) 256-5886

Presbyterian Disaster Assistance (800) 872-3283

Salvation Army (800) SAL-ARMY (725-2769)

Southern Baptist Convention -- Disaster Relief (800) 462-8657, ext. 6133

United Methodist Committee on Relief (800) 554-8583

Governor orders complete evacuation of New Orleans

2005-08-30T16:56:00.000-04:00

In a press conference this afternoon, the Governor of Louisiana ordered a complete evacuation of New Orleans, including all shelters, rescue centers, and hospitals. The Army Corps of Engineers revealed that the levy breaches have no yet been fixed and, in fact, one is now 300 feet long. The mayor of New Orleans listed his priorities as 1) evacuating those still stranded around the city, 2) fixing the breaches in the levee, and 3) caring for and evacuating the Superdome, hospitals, and all other shelters.

UPDATE: WWL-TV Reporter quotes officials as saying there may now be 60,000 people in the Superdome and that more people are still being urged to go there.

Hundreds feared dead in the wake of Katrina

2005-08-30T14:54:00.000-04:00

Once again, I will try to continue to update this post rather than making numerous small ones. The damage report post will also be updated with photos and videos as I receive them. Please send submissions and tips to severestorm@gmail.com.

From Reuters:

"The devastation is greater than our worst fears," Louisiana Gov. Kathleen Blanco told a news conference. "It's totally overwhelming."

She spoke after an overnight breach in New Orleans' protective levee system allowed water from Lake Pontchartrain to flood most of the city.

In the Mississippi coastal city of Biloxi, hundreds may have been killed after being trapped in their homes when a 30-foot (9 meter) storm surge came ashore, a city spokesman said.

"It's going to be in the hundreds," spokesman Vincent Creel told Reuters. "Camille was 200, and we're looking at a lot more than that," he said, referring to Hurricane Camille, which hit the area in 1969 and destroyed swaths of Mississippi and Louisiana, killing a total of 256 people.

New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin reported bodies floating in the city's floodwaters.

The AP is reporting that damage at this point is estimated to be as high as $26 billion. This would easilly make Katrina the most expensive natural disaster to ever strike the United States, surpassing Hurricane Andrew's $21 billion.

WWL-TV is reporting:

Jeff Parish President. Residents will probably be allowed back in town in a week, with identification only, but only to get essentials and clothing. You will then be asked to leave and not come back for one month.

Jefferson Parish President Aaron Broussard says there is no plumbing and the sanitary situation is getting nasty. He told WAFB-TV that he is carrying around a bag for his own human waste.

Jefferson Parish officials say schools could reopen by Dec. 1.

Video on WAFB-TV shows the Twin Spans between I-10 and Slidell broken in dozens of spots.

As of 2:40pm CDT: Jefferson Parish councilman Tom Capella says pumps working near Veterans and West Esplanade and water is receeding there. He says break in levee at 17th Street canal continues to pour water into Lakeview.

New Orleans levee is breached

2005-08-30T11:37:00.000-04:00

This is a two hundred foot long breach in the levee on the Orleans and Jefferson Parish line. Water is rising at an inch every five minutes in some locations. Eighty percent of New Orleans is under water.

UPDATE: The Army Corps of Engineers is going to try airlifting 3,000 lb sandbags to fill the 200 ft breach in the 17th Canal Levee. Water is still rising and I will keep you updated. In the interim, anyone with a boat is asked to bring it to the Sam's Club parking lot at the corner of Airline and Clearly to assist in rescue missions. This location is being used as a base of operations and anyone who is able to get there will be brought by the National Guard to the Superdome. From there medical evacs are being brought to LSU in Baton Rouge (which has been turned into an emergency operations center). Also, according to the Drudge Report, martial law has been imposed in Jefferson and Plaquemines Parishes.

UPDATE 3:50pm CDT: The Army Corps of Engineers reports that the breach is now 300 feet long and remains unpatched. Water levels are continuing to rise

Katrina damage reports

2005-08-29T23:19:00.000-04:00

Now that reports are finally streaming in, it is time to document the damage. This report will be updated as I receive new information so please keep checking back. In Harrison County, Mississippi alone, the governor is reporting up to 80 deaths. By my count, we are dealing with a total of 94 deaths reported (including the three from the evacuation and eleven from Florida). I cannot solely scour the internet looking for video and photos but am looking to you for help. Please send any help and tips to severestorm@gmail.com.

Boil orders are in effect for Orleans and Jefferson parishes, except for Algiers and the Central Business District.

The Times-Picayune is running a blog keeping track of updates in the New Orleans area.

Here is one link sent to me from WKRG in Mobile. They are streaming video.

This is a photo found on The Drudge Report that I believe is looking down Tulane Ave from in front of the Ritz towards the Hyatt in the distance. This is at the border between the French Quarter and Treme, I believe near North Rampart.

Video from the AP on the damage in New Orleans

Slideshow from Yahoo compiling AP, Reuters, and other photos

The NY Times is running an comprehensive article reporting at least 55 dead.
The Times also has a good slide show of the aftermath.

WWL-TV is also mainting a good photo gallery and slide show of yesterday, plus one of today's flooding. They also have many video fly-overs of the city.

WAFB is running a video slide show of aerial photos of the flooding.

The Sun Herald has more photo galleries than I feel like listing.

Yahoo! can be used to generate a photo list for Katrina.

Thanks to Liz Masoner and Sarah Mitchell for their help with this report.

Call for damage reports

2005-08-29T14:52:00.000-04:00

At this point I am sending out a call to everyone to send in your damage reports to severestorm@gmail.com with pictures if you have them. I am trying to compile a picture for everyone of what is happening. From what I have heard, downtown Mobile was flooded, the Superdome lost a huge chunk of its roof (most the outer shell), there as a small levee failure in St Bernard Parish, LA, and Mississippi is a complete mess. It seems that we may not know until tomorrow morning how bad things are there. Just because New Orleans dodged the bullet on this one, does not mean everyone escaped unharmed. A Category 5 hurricane does not just go away.

FLASHBACK: I think everyone should realize we knew this was coming. I talked about this at the beginning of the season.

New Orleans spared the worst

2005-08-29T10:36:00.000-04:00

It seems like a miracle at the moment, but New Orleans has been spared the worst of the storm. Reports indicate damage at the Superdome and the city pumps are down. However, the levies seem to be holding. It is still too early to tell whether they will breach, but so far the situation looks a lot better than it could have been. The latest recon reports a central pressure of 926 mb and winds are likely in the ballpark of 130 mph. The fact that the hurricane passed in its current track is very lucky for everyone. Things could have been much worse. With that said, there have already been reports for three storm related deaths.

Katrina weakens a bit more, New Orleans Under the Gun

2005-08-29T03:24:00.000-04:00

Katrina has weakened somewhat to a strong category 4 hurricane with winds of 155 mph and 910mb central pressure. It's a waiting game to see if she wobbles a bit and spares a direct hit on New Orleans proper and just how bad she is when she moves ashore.

Katrina weakens slightly, New Orleans still screwed.

2005-08-28T23:21:00.000-04:00

The storm has slowed down and is still moving NNW at 9 knots. It is tracking just to the west of New Orleans proper and this is a bad thing. Latest observations show the storm at 160mph and 904mb which is interesting. The drop in winds is not surprising and in fact the earlier 175mph numbers may have been incorrect. These numbers were based on flight level winds from Hurricane Hunter aircraft and looking back at the data the National Hurricane Center has revised the windspeeds lower. This is not to say that the storm is not strong. IT IS. A sustained pressure of 904mb is incredibly impressive and significantly stronger than Andrew and really any other hurricane we have ever seen in our lifetimes.

Apparently a eyewall replacement cycle is happening which could cause weakening within the storm, but will result in a widening wind field which really is a wash. Winds may be slightly decreased near the eyewall but it really does not matter since the winds are SO strong.

Video from NOLA

2005-08-28T21:49:00.001-04:00

Streaming video from WWL-TV CBS New Orleans

Hurricane Katrina landfall resources

2005-08-28T16:01:00.000-04:00

At this point all evacuations and preparations should be nearing completion. Below is the latest computer model suite.

As you can see, New Orleans is resting squarely in the cross-hairs. We are beginning to prepare to transition from forecasting to tracking the storm as it makes landfall. People should understand that this has potential to be one of the greatest natural disasters that this county has ever faced. As you begin to watch the storm come ashore, I would like to give you all a few links to check.

The National Data Buoy Center has a compilation of observations useful in the area.
Click on the map to go to their site for specific observation, or the above link for a list.

Check with the National Weather Service in New Orleans for radar observations.

Please understand that the radar will likely be knocked out by the storm before the hurricane gets too close. After that the radar in Mobile will probably be the most useful.

For the latest satellite imagery, check with the Naval Research Lab's Monterey Marine Meteorology Division.

P.S. Don't look now, but there is another tropical depression in the Atlantic.

I'm going to try to ignore it for now but the models call for strengthening.

Katrina continues to strengthen,

2005-08-28T14:40:00.000-04:00

According to the latest VORTEX data message Katrina has strengthened to 902mb and 184mph.

"I do not want to create a panic, but..." - Mayor of New Orleans

Urgent Weather Message from NWS New Orleans

2005-08-28T14:21:00.000-04:00

WWUS74 KLIX 281550
NPWLIX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1011 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005


DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED

HURRICANE KATRINA
A MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH UNPRECEDENTED
STRENGTH...RIVALING THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969.

MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. AT
LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL
FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY
DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.

THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL.
PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD
FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE
BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME
WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.

HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A
FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT.

AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH
AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY
VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE
ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE
WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.

POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN
AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING
INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY
THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW
CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE
KILLED.

AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
HURRICANE FORCE...OR FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE...ARE
CERTAIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

ONCE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ONSET...DO NOT VENTURE
OUTSIDE!

LAZ038-040-050-056>070-282100-
ASSUMPTION-LIVINGSTON-LOWER JEFFERSON-LOWER LAFOURCHE-
LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-LOWER TERREBONNE-ORLEANS-
ST. CHARLES-ST. JAMES-ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-ST. TAMMANY-TANGIPAHOA-
UPPER JEFFERSON-UPPER LAFOURCHE-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-
UPPER TERREBONNE-
1011 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

Hurricane Katrina expected to devastate New Orleans

2005-08-28T12:55:00.000-04:00

I am going to make this very simple. If you are in Mississippi or Lousiana near or below sea level, GET OUT!!! This is one of the largest hurricanes in the history of North America. This is forecasted to hit New Orleans and if it does, the city will be devastated. The levies will breach and the winds will be like on giant F3 tornado. This very scenario has been on femmes worst case natural disaster list for years. This storm makes Hurricane Camille look small. For an idea of what New Orleans is dealing with, check out this report.

Current sustained winds are at 175 mph and the central pressure is now down to 906 mb.

The latest model runs all call for a direct strike on New Orleans. The only model bringing the storm away from the city is the Eta model. The Eta model NEVER does well with any tropical systems so I am paying little attention to it.

This huge burst in strength is being fuelled by an area of very high Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential in the Gulf. Look below and you can see how much energy is out there to fuel this storm. While slight weakening is likely, significant weakening is not expected.

Bigger than Camille, Time to Pray

2005-08-28T12:16:00.000-04:00

A DROP IN THE EYE
GAVE A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 907 MB. KATRINA IS COMPARABLE IN
INTENSITY TO HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969...ONLY LARGER.

Andrew hit with a central pressure of 922mb.

Camille hit with a central pressure of 909mb.

Right now, Katrina is at 907mb. If she stays anywhere around here (and there is NO reason to think she will weaken dramatically other than natural weakening of a big storm) it will be absolutely devastating.

Winds of 175, which are more than enough to make plans take off in. SUSTAINED WINDS.

For comparison, this is similar to a F3 tornado.

Katrina strengthens, New Orleans battens down

2005-08-27T23:45:00.000-04:00

Watches and Warnings are up for the Gulf Coast in anticipation of a Monday landfall of Hurricane Katrina.

The latest advisory shows a central pressure of 939mb and maximum sustained winds at 115 mph making her a borderline Category 3 hurricane. SHIPS intensity model is still calling for a STRONG category 4 landfall between 140 and 150mph. Models are tightening up with a hit around New Orleans proper.

This is no joke, this would be a completely devastating hurricane strike, with absolutely no precedent in the United States, not even compared to Andrew. New Orleans is anywhere from 0-30 feet below sea level (with 0 being at the Mississippi River).

Here is a quote from the PBS show NOW

WALTER MAESTRI: New Orleans is, if you think about it, it's a soup bowl. Think of a soup bowl. And the soup bowl-- the high edges of the soup bowl-- is the Mississippi River. It's amazing to say, but the highest elevation in the city of New Orleans is at the Mississippi River.

DANIEL ZWERDLING: Maestri says, imagine what happens if a hurricane like Andrew comes raging up from the Gulf:

WALTER MAESTRI: The hurricane is spinning counter-clockwise. It's been pushing in front of it water from the Gulf of Mexico for days. It's now got a wall of water in front of it some 30, 40 feet high. As it approaches the levies of the-- the-- that surround the city, it tops those levees. As the storm continues to pass over. Now Lake Ponchetrain, that water from Lake Ponchartrain is now pushed on to that - those population which has been fleeing from the western side and everybody's caught in the middle. The bowl now completely fills. And we've now got the entire community underwater some 20, 30 feet underwater. Everything is lost.

DANIEL ZWERDLING: Remember the levees which the Army built, to hold smaller floods out of the bowl? Maestri says now those levees would doom the city. Because they'd trap the water in.

WALTER MAESTRI: It's going to look like a massive shipwreck. There's going to be-- there's going to be, you know-- everything that that the water has carried in is going to be there. Alligators, moccasins, you know every kind of rodent that you could think of.

All of your sewage treatment plants are under water. And of course the material is flowing free in the community. Disease becomes a distinct possibility now. The petrochemicals that are produced all up and down the Mississippi River --much of that has floated into this bowl. I mean this has become, you know, the biggest toxic waste dump in the world now. Is the city of New Orleans because of what has happened.

If you, or anyone you know is in or around New Orleans, I cannot strongly urge you enough to leave the city and seek higher ground. There is simply too much of a danger of extreme and prolonged flooding to stay in the city. Even a skirting hit would do serious damage to life and property and it simply is not worth it to stay.

If Jim Cantore shows up on your doorstep, it is going to get interesting.

Katrina taking aim on New Orleans

2005-08-27T12:49:00.000-04:00

I think the graphics below speak best for our current situation. Let me make this simple: If you live in New Orleans, board up and get out. At the last advisory, winds were 115 mph and central pressure was estimated at 940 mb (although this may be a little high). Needless to say, a direct impact on New Orleans will be absolutely devastating.

Hurricane Katrina taking aim at New Orleans

2005-08-27T03:06:00.000-04:00

Katrina has continued to strengthen and looks to be directly threatening New Orleans. Those you in the Biloxi and New Orleans area need to immediately begin preparing for a major hurricane. The current forecast calls for a Category Four hurricane to strike the central Gulf Coast on Monday. However, intensity is very hard to predict. With regards to track, the models have been locking onto a track right around New Orleans.

In this area of Louisiana, for every foot of storm surge, the water can travel a mile inland. With a Category Four hurricane, a storm surge of 13 - 18 feet can be expected. Currently sustained winds are at 110 mph with a central pressure of 963 mb. Additional strengthening is likely.

Katrina reaches Category 2, continues to strengthen

2005-08-26T12:03:00.000-04:00

As expected, a special advisory has upgraded Katrina to a Category 2 hurricane. Additional strengthening is likely today as Katrina could become a Category 4 hurricane within the weekend.

Katrina intensifying rapidly

2005-08-26T11:20:00.000-04:00

Now that Katrina is over the Gulf of Mexico, she is gaining strength very quickly. Latest recon indicated a central pressure down to 971 mb and sustained winds of at least 90 mph. The hurricane hunter is still on site so more will be said about this later. For now notice the westward shift in the models tracks. However, it is clear that the models do not have a very good idea on Katrina. This is actually very typical of both systems that are rapidly deepening, and those that just crossed land.

A nice resource for tropical models

2005-08-26T03:13:00.000-04:00

I have received a couple emails asking for me to talk about the differences in the computer models that meteorologists use to forecast tropical systems. For this purpose, a would like to refer everyone to a NHC site for just this purpose. As an FYI, in general my favorite tropical model in the UKMET. If any of you are interested in mid-lattitude models, just let me know. I would be happy to make a post about that.

Katrina downgraded to a tropical storm, for now

2005-08-26T02:53:00.000-04:00

After making landfall over the Broward / Miami Dade county line, Katrina was downgraded to a tropical storm with winds of 70 mph and a central pressure of 990 mb. However, I think this is going to be a very short-lived weakening. Katrina is already out over the Gulf of Mexico and barely clipped Florida. The eye is clearly still intact on radar and Katrina is forecast to regain hurricane status very quickly.

The SHIPS and GFDL models, our two most dependable for intensity, both strengthen Katrina into a major hurricane before a second U.S. landfall in the Florida panhandle.

Here we go again... I think everyone up there should know the routine by now. My gut tells me that Katrina could mean business in the Gulf. NHC seems to be feeling the same thing in their forecast. I think they may be holding back as their latest forecast discussion is sounding much more serious. Already at least four people have been killed as a result of Katrina and over one million are without power.

Upgraded Hurricane Katrina comes ashore over Fort Lauderdale

2005-08-25T18:57:00.000-04:00

From NHC:

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT REPORTS AND DOPPLER RADAR DATA INDICATES
THAT TROPICAL STORM KATRINA HAS STRENGTHENED INTO A HURRICANE...

SHORTLY BEFORE 330 PM EDT...REPORTS FROM A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT AND NOAA DOPPLER RADAR DATA FROM MIAMI INDICATE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS INCREASED TO A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE.

DATA FROM THE STEPPED-FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER ONBOARD THE
NOAA AIRCRAFT MEASURED HURRICANE-FORCE SURFACE WINDS...WHICH IS
SUPPORTED BY NOAA DOPPLER RADAR VELOCITY DATA FROM WFO MIAMI.

Hurricane Warnings posted for Florida

2005-08-25T00:27:00.000-04:00

Hurricane Warnings are now in effect for the southeast coast of Florida.

While Katrina is not expected to be a major hurricane, those in it paths should pay attention to her development. The computer models do not have a very good handle on Katrina, as you can see below.

Katrina is still in her formative stages as a tropical storm with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph and a central pressure of 1001 mb. Katrina is moving very slowly towards the west at 8 mph. Steering current in the area are very weak. Katrina is expected to continue to steadily strengthen before landfall. Upon moving into the Gulf of Mexico, if she really does, Katrina will likely make a second Florida landfall in the panhandle. Good luck!

Tropical Storm Katrina forms, Hurricane Watch active in Florida

2005-08-24T14:06:00.000-04:00

Tropical Storm quatrain is really getting her act together now. Radar out of Miami indicates that there is actually a multitude of sub-vortices forming within the primacy circulation. This is an interesting setup that is causing quatrain to develop a little further north than first expected. Right now shear is low, the underlying water is warm, and outflow is excellent.

Look for steady intensification to occur, and Katrina could be a weak hurricane at landfall somewhere near Miami to Ft Lauderdale.

Check below for a map of watches and warnings now active in the Bahamas and Florida.

Tropical Depression 10 / 12 forms in the Bahamas

2005-08-23T17:14:00.000-04:00

Sometimes people do things so incredibly inexplicable that you can't help but to smile and laugh. NHC pulled one of those today. NHC is issuing advisories on "Tropical Depression 12" which up until this afternoon was referred to as "possibly the remnants of Tropical Depression 10." Oh, the joy of meteorology!

In the words of NHC:

THE NWS RULES GOVERNING THE NAMING OF TROPICAL CYCLONES SPECIFY THAT...WITHIN A BASIN...WHEN A CYCLONE FORMS FROM THE REMNANT OF A PREVIOUSLY EXISTING CYCLONE...THE OLD NAME/NUMBER IS RETAINED. TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE HAS A COMPLEX GENESIS THAT LIKELY INCLUDES A MID-LEVEL REMNANT OF FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN. A REVIEW OF SATELLITE AND RAWINSONDE DATA OVER THE PAST WEEK OR SO SUGGESTS THAT A SECOND DISTURBANCE APPROACHED AND COMBINED WITH THE MID-LEVEL REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN ON 20 AUGUST. BECAUSE IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO DETERMINE WHICH OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS IS ASSOCIATED WITH TODAY'S GENESIS...WE HAVE ELECTED TO USE THE DESIGNATION TWELVE RATHER THAN TEN FOR THE NEW DEPRESSION. THIS SITUATION DIFFERS FROM LAST YEAR'S REGENERATION OF IVAN...IN WHICH THE LOW-LEVEL REMNANT OF THAT SYSTEM REMAINED A DISTINCT FEATURE THAT COULD BE FOLLOWED CONTINUOUSLY UNTIL IT REGENERATED.

Yup, and I am the Easter Bunny.

Anyhow, the system has sustained winds of 30 mph and a central pressure of 1007 mb. TD 12 (right...) is expected to steadily strengthen before moving across South Florida as a strong tropical storm (possibly a weak hurricane) and out into the Gulf of Mexico. Please note, THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST! The model track are very divergent and intensity is very hard to forecast at this stage. There is no strong circulation present with this system, and no deep convection on the west side.

A quick look at the double trouble in the Pacific

2005-08-23T00:46:00.000-04:00

What really strikes me is the symetry and eye in Tropical Storm Guchol. Absolutely amazing for just a tropical storm.

Of course, Typhoon Mawar isn't too shabby either.

Hey, Jose

2005-08-22T22:08:00.000-04:00

While I would hardly call this a significant event, Tropical Storm Jose has formed in the Gulf of Mexico and is quickly striking the central Mexico coast. Currently maximum sustained winds are at 50 mph and the minimum central pressure is 1002 mb.

Double Trouble for Japan

2005-08-22T09:19:00.000-04:00

While I typically try to ignore the Western Pacific, I thought the current situation was worth noting. It looks like Japan is coming under the threat of two tropical cyclones. After a rapid intensification, a very strong Typhoon Mawar looks to strike right up the backbone of Japan. This looks like a serious problem for them. Right to the northeast of Mawar, is Tropical Storm Guchol which will hopefully curve out to see. The only good news there is that Guchol looks like it is being sheared and its convection inhibited by the outflow from nearby Mawar. I'll try to keep an eye on this system now.

Hurricane Hilary grazes Mexican coast

2005-08-21T23:46:00.000-04:00

While she is still well of the coast, Hurricane Hilary today grazed the Mexican coast with minimal tropical storm force winds. Hillary is currently has sustained winds at 105 mph with a central pressure of 970 mb. She is moving WNW at 18 mph and should quickly move off the coast and harmlessly out to sea. Slight additional strengthening is forecast for the next day before weakening over cooler waters.

Hilary upgraded to a hurricane

2005-08-21T02:16:00.000-04:00

For those who care about the Pacific, Hilary has been upgraded to a hurricane. With a low shear environment and warm ocean temperatures, look for Hilary to continue to strengthen for a few days before reaching cooler water. However, unless you are on a ship, this is unlikely to matter as no land is in sight.

Tropical Storm Hilary forms in the Pacific

2005-08-19T22:56:00.000-04:00

While it does not seem to be too dire a threat to land, Tropical Storm Hilary has just formed in the Pacific. Winds are only at 35 knots, but Hilary should strengthen as she moves away from Mexico. There is nothing special about this storm at the current time, but we will keep an eye on her as she develops.

Tornado kills one in Wisconsin

2005-08-19T12:48:00.000-04:00

I try to stay up to date with current weather events with the tropics die down. Since Irene is now extratropical, I thought now would be a good time to keep up to date. Yesterday one man was killed an eight other injured when a tornado ripped through the suburbs of Madison, Wisconsin. You can read more here.

Also, Slashdot is running a topic about how technologically friendly the National Weather Service has become. I personally think this has a lot to do with extensive uses of Linux in their radar and weather information systems, in addition to the computer revolution of meteorology in the last decade.

2005-08-17T11:26:00.000-04:00

After briefly reaching Category 2 intensity, Hurricane Irene is back down to a minimal hurricane. Check out the track history below for details.

Hurricane Irene peaking intensity

2005-08-15T17:10:00.000-04:00

Irene really has gotten her act together. Winds are up to 90 mph and pressure is down to 980 mb. Right now she is being deflected out to sea by the front draped across New England and should begin to weaken tomorrow. Irene does look sexy for a storm this far north, but this is what happens with the Gulf Stream.

Irene upgraded to a hurricane

2005-08-14T22:44:00.000-04:00

While it is not much of a surprise, Irene has been upgraded to hurricane status. The warm Gulf Stream water have served to strengthen the storm. Recon recently reported a central pressure of 989 mb and sustained winds of 75 mph. Irene will remain over the warm water of the Gulf Stream for another 24 hours and further intensification is possible. Irene is the third hurricane of the 2005 season. There is normally only one hurricane by this point in the season and only one year, 1966, had more hurricanes by this point in the season.

Fernanda downgraded to tropical storm, TD Ten discontinued

2005-08-14T11:43:00.000-04:00

Unsurprisingly, Fernanda is now back to a strong tropical storm. Looking at the satellite, Fernanda has the classic signature of a decaying hurricane. The remenants of the eye are clearly visible but cloud tops are warmer.

In the Atlantic, NHC has discontinued advisories on TD Ten. I will keep an eye on this one as redevelopment may occur.

Irene hanging tough, TD Ten looking very much the same

2005-08-14T00:04:00.000-04:00

Irene is showing determination had has recently sent off another burst of deep convection near the center. Irene is also showing a low-level eye that is impressive for a tropical storm.

Tropical Depression Ten seems to be following right in Irene's tracks. As NHC put it:

THE DEPRESSION IS BEGINNING TO LOOK LIKE IRENE-JUNIOR AS IT
UNDERGOES SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL SHEAR BENEATH THE OTHERWISE
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN. THROW IN SOME DRY MID-LEVEL
AIR AND YOU HAVE THE MAKINGS FOR A DIFFICULT INTENSITY FORECAST.
THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AFTER 48 HOURS BY THE SHIPS MODEL
...SO THE INTENSITY IT GRADUALLY INCREASED AFTER THAT. HOWEVER...
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS BELOW THE SHIPS AND THE GFDL MODELS
...THE LATTER OF WHICH MAKES THE CYCLONE A 70-KT HURRICANE BY 120H.

I couldn't agree more. TD Ten looks to be having trouble seperating from the tropical wave but still is very early in its formative stages. I wish I could say with any confidence what it is going to do.

Irene curving out the sea, TD Ten forms in her tracks

2005-08-13T19:32:00.000-04:00

As expected last night, Irene has sucked in plenty of dry air which has contained the system. Irene remains a strong tropical storm but is being deflected harmlessly out to sea but a cold front. The central pressure is up to 999 mb and winds seems unusually strong for such a high pressure at 70 mph. So much for the beneficials rains in the East!

However, another tropical depression has formed in the Atlantic which looks to follow behind Irene. For a short time conditions are favorable for TD Ten to strengthen into Tropical Storm Jose, but this window looks very limited. After that the storm should act much like Irene and try to maintain intensity.

Tropical Storm Irene bordering hurricane strength

2005-08-13T00:21:00.000-04:00

The latest recon from Irene indicated sustained winds of 70 mph with a central pressure of 991 mb. Recent satellite imagery suggests a slight weakening of the storm, but hurricane intensity remains a real posibility.

Irene seems to be sucking in a lot of dry air from the north and I expect this will continue for a couple days. The warm Gulf Stream below and favorable winds aloft will be battling this dry air and likely will result in little intensification. Of course, this is prone is large errors so please keep a close eye on the system. The latest guidance is much more convergent and suggests that Irene will miss the East Coast.

This actually may be a bad thing as many areas of the East would have benefitted from the rain.

Oh yes, and in the Pacific, Hurricane Fernanda is holding tight. The interesting part is that the outflow out of Fernanda actually seems to be shearing and containing Tropical Storm Greg.

However, I doubt many people actually care as the two storms pose absolutely no threat to land.

Irene continues to strengthen, poses threat to East Coast

2005-08-12T15:37:00.000-04:00

Irene seems to be getting her act together now and could become a hurricane within 24 hours. Current maximum sustained winds are estimated at 65 mph and her central pressure is estimated at 994 mb. A hurricane hunter is on the way to visit Irene and we should know more later today. Coming up this weekend, Irene should begin interacting with a cold front coming down the eastern seaboard that will likely serve to protect New England, but other areas, especially North Carolina, should pay close attention to this storm. The models continue to have a poor grasp on this storm and a strike probability map from NHC is below.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Greg is having a harder time getting his act together in the Pacific but should continue to strengthen to close to hurricane intensity as he moves outt to sea. Hurricane Fernanda is moving over cooler waters and has already begun to weaken, proving to be pose no threat to land.

Irene continues her slow march towards the eastern U.S.

2005-08-12T00:45:00.000-04:00

Little unexpected changes have occured in the tropics in the past day. Right now Fernanda is a weak hurricane and about to begin weakening. Greg seems to be ignoring Fernanda and slowing strengthening as he moves out towards the west. Greg is expected to become a minimal hurricane in a couple days before weakening over cooler water.

Irene is also playing right into her forecasted role. Maximum sustained winds are up to 50 mph and her central pressure is down to 1000 mb. Right now Irene has few cold cloud tops and a center remains hard to find, but a banding signature with healthy outflow remains. It looks as if conditions are becoming more favorable for strengthening as Irene approaches the East Coast. However, the models are diverging on both track and intensity at this point. One set of models brings Irene right into the southeastern U.S. while another curve it towards the north. However, the GFS which is turning Irene, also want to disipate the storm. Once again it seems as if Irene is not going to sit well with the guidance.

Three active systems strengthen in the tropics

2005-08-11T12:13:00.000-04:00

Since last night things have gotten more interesting in the tropics.

Tropical Storm Irene is once again showing deep convection and healthy outflow. The models do not have a very good handle on this storm and right now I think we need to wait for a better defined center of circulation to develop. Right now the circulation seems to be very elongated.

Fernanda is now a minimal hurricane in the eastern Pacific. However, the cloud patterns are looking more ragged and I expect her to weaken soon. Fernanda is moving over cooler water, however, shear in the area remains low. She should lead to a very gradual weakening.

Just to add to the party, when have the newly-formed Tropical Storm Greg in the eastern Pacific! Greg looks very healthy and is expected to strengthen. It will be interesting to see how Greg starts to interact with Fernanda as he draws near.

Irene regains tropical storm strength

2005-08-11T02:08:00.000-04:00

The latest advisory is again showing Irene at tropical storm strength. At this point outflow is improving in every direction except for the south and a convective band has wrapped half-way around the system. While it is too early to predict a possible landfall, the southeastern United States should pay attention to this storm. As seems to be the trend with this system, gradual strengthening is forecast in the coming days.

Fernanda nearing hurricane strength

2005-08-10T20:32:00.000-04:00

Fernanda is now approaching hurricane strength as Irene is close to regainging tropical storm intensity. Fernanda has very healthy outflow and is developing an eye while Irene struggles to maintain central convection. Look for Fernanda to become a hurricane while Irene becomes a tropical storm. The Saharan dust storm that we have all heard so much about seems to be seriously surpressing tropical development.

Irene clinging to life, Fernanda undergoing rapid strengthening

2005-08-10T10:49:00.000-04:00

Tropical Depression Irene is showing much more life today than any recent time. There is moderate convection surrounding the "center" of circulation. Outflow to the northwest is also showing signs of life again. Overnight Irene was even showing that there was a closed circulation but this morning is bringing her a little more life. Maximum sustained winds are around 35 mph with a central pressure of 1009 mb.

Tropical Storm Fernanda is continuing to show signs of steady strengthening. Deep convection is surrounding the center of circulation with healthy outflow and banding features. Fernanda is forecast to reach hurricane strength soon. However, Fernanda is posing no threat to any land mass and will likely only disturb shipping.

Tuesday night tropical update

2005-08-09T23:45:00.000-04:00

The latest round of advisories from NHC indicates that the tropical depression has strengthened into Tropical Storm Fernanda. This strengthening is clearly evident in the IR satellite imagery. Fernanda should reach hurricane strength in a few days. Sea surface temperatures are warm and shear remains low.

Tropical Depression Irene seemed to be getting her act together earlier today but has since weakened. NHC is continuing to strengthen her long term but I remain doubtful. There is a lot of shear currently in the system and dry air abounds.

Irene suspended, Tropical Depression Six-E forms in the Pacific

2005-08-09T10:55:00.000-04:00

NHC has suspended advisories on Tropical Depression Irene (for 6 hours) but HPC has picked them up as Irene looks a little bit healthier now. NHC is AGAIN forecasting Irene to be a tropical storm within a couple days.

However, just so that we all have something better to follow, Tropical Depression Six-E has formed in the Pacific. It is forecast to reach tropical storm strength tonight. The Pacific, in contrast to the Atlantic, is currently three named storms behind its typical pace.

Harvey discontinued, Irene downgraded to a tropical depression

2005-08-08T23:32:00.000-04:00

NHC has officially discontinued advisories on Harvey as it has transitioned to a completely extratropical system. They also downgraded Irene to a tropical depression. Recon indicates that a Saharan air layer at mid and upper levels in combining with strong shear to seriously cripple Irene. As has been the trend, the official forecast for Irene shows strengthening in a few days as conditions could improve near the storm.

August 7 tropical update - Harvey and Irene keep chugging

2005-08-07T16:06:00.000-04:00

I wish that there was more to say about Harvey and Irene. They each keep churning along on their merry ways, not seeming to care too much about what is around them.

Tropical Storm Harvey should be transitioning to an extratropical storm soon. He is over cooler ocean waters and is fairly far north at this point. He is currently packing winds of 50 mph and does not pose a threat to anyone other than some slightly rough seas for shipping in the Atlantic.

Newly named Tropical Storm Irene is also not posing much of a risk to anyone right now. Winds are near 40 mph with an estimated central pressure of 1005 mb. Irene is surrounded by dry air and encountering heavy shear. Sea surface temperatures around Irene are only marginally warm enough to support any strengthening. The storm has had several new centers for off to the north of the previous centers but the broad circulation as continued on a west-northwest track. Right now the best forecast for Irene seems to be the status quo. We'll have to see how things look in a few days with this storm.

Good Morning Irene!

2005-08-07T12:18:00.000-04:00

We now have two tropical storms dancing around the Atlantic. Harvey is hanging tough and Irene was just born. I need to run out to lunch. Details can be found at NHC.

Tropical Depression nine maintains status quo

2005-08-06T13:52:00.000-04:00

Tropical Depression Nine thus far has refused to die but it showing very little desire to get its act together. There are a couple other areas of disturbed weather in the Atlantic basin that are actually threatening to beat TD Nine to the name Irene. One of these areas is in the northern Gulf and the other is off the coast of North Carolina. Right now TD Nine seems to just want to slowly move east across the Atlantic and maintain intensity for a couple days. However, it is very possible to see this system split, dissipate, or strengthen.

Tropical Storm Harvey to maintains strength, soon to weaken

2005-08-06T13:41:00.000-04:00

Right now Tropical Storm Harvey is continuing its northward track at 7 mph. Current winds are at 70 mph and central pressure is 997 mb. While Harvey is likely to strengthen ever so slightly today, he is heading towards cooler waters of the North Atlantic and should beging to weaken soon.

TD Nine showing signs of disorganization

2005-08-05T11:07:00.000-04:00

What a difference a day makes! Right now Tropical Depression Nine is proving to be very disorganized and has shifted out over cooler waters. However, the broad circulation still remains and the potential for tropical storm development exists over the next couple of days. I will keep you updated on this one.

Tropical Storm Harvey experiencing heavy shear

2005-08-05T11:01:00.000-04:00

It looks as in Harvey may be in the way down. At this time deep convection in limited and shear is increasing. Look for Harvey to soon weaken and head harmlessly out to sea.

Tropical Depression Nine forms in the Atlantic, forecast to become Hurricane Irene

2005-08-04T17:46:00.000-04:00

So far this year has proven to live up the hype generated by last year's destructive hurricane season. Just as a reminder, at this time last year Hurricane Charley was terrorizing Florida. For a reality check to this year, right now it looks as if we will be dealing with Hurricane Irene in a few days. That is three storms last year to a record nine storms so far this year. Does this amaze anyone else?

Tropical Depression Nine is currently located harmlessly in the deep tropics of the central Atlantic Ocean. Right now it is not immediately threatening any land but could be in a better position to do so in a few days. TD Nine is forecast to move steadily to the west-northwest while also continuing to build strength. It is sitting in a low-shear environment with plenty of warm water to fuel its growth. The official NHC forecast brings TD Nine to be Hurricane Irene in 72 hours.

Tropical disturbance seems to be organizing in the Atlantic

2005-08-04T12:26:00.000-04:00

There is a broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave about 575 WSW of the Cape Verde Islands that seems to be organizing. NHC is discussing issuing advisories on this system as a tropical depression. More should follow later today.

Tropical Storm Harvey becomes purely tropical

2005-08-04T12:20:00.000-04:00

Harvey has undergone a drastic transformation overnight and now looks to be a purely tropical storm void of its previous hybrid characteristics. Winds have also increased to 65 mph while the pressure has dropped to 994 mb. It is not outside the realm of possibilities to see Harvey become a hurricane before he weakens and, in fact, I do expect to see some further strengthening today. Right now Harvey is over waters that are barely strong enough to support strengthening and should be moving over cooler waters starting tomorrow.

Recon reports Tropical Storm Harvey stronger than anticipated

2005-08-03T16:04:00.000-04:00

Recon just reported that Harvey is actually stronger than previously advised. Central pressure is down to 999 mb and winds are up to 60 mph.

Tropical Storm Harvey forms in the Atlantic

2005-08-03T11:24:00.000-04:00

I use the term "Tropical Storm" loosely with Harvey. The large outer band, upper level low, and lack of outflow make me think that Harvey is almost more subtropical. Looking at the cloud pattern, you can see that this is not the best looking tropical storm of the season.

The models are still lacking consensus with the storm but this is expected with hybrid storms. Right now Harvey is a forecast to come under influence of an approaching shortwave which should pull him towards the northeast. A hurricane hunter is on the way to the storm today so more information should be available later today.

Tropical Storm Harvery forecasted to form

2005-08-02T22:16:00.000-04:00

Tropical Depression Eight is now active in the Atlantic. Tropical Storm Warnings are also up for Bermuda. NHC is forecasting TD Eight to become Tropial Storm Harvey overnight tonight or early tomorrow. "Harvey" does not have very good tropical form and is showing some subtropical characteristics. Accordingly, the models seem to have a very poor handle on this system and show no clear consensus. I actually have no faith in any of the models when it comes to subtropical systems, extratropical systems, or any time warm core systems interact with cold core lows.

2005-08-02T12:02:00.000-04:00

The National Weather Service this week increased it official long-range tropical forecast to 18 to 21 tropical storms by the end of the hurricane season at the end of November. This is up from the original 12 to 15 storms that were forecast in May. This is only serving to fuel the debate of whether we are seeing in increase in tropical activity due to natural cycles or anthropogenic climate change.

- Read More -

NWS Tallahassee issues Radiological Hazard Warning

2005-08-01T20:12:00.000-04:00

The National Weather Service Forecast Office in Tallahassee, FL, made a big blunder in issuing a Radiological Hazard Warning this week over the Emergency Alert System rather than a routine weekly test.

- Read More -

In other news, I am still in Louisiana and am having trouble getting Internet connections down here. I will be back home at the end of next week but for now will do my best. Hopefully Jordan will be able to keep things running.

Tornado rips through... England?

2005-07-29T23:40:00.000-04:00

This should serve as a double reminder. Tornadic weather can occur in almost all regions of the globe. Also, cities are not immune from their destructive power. Afraid yet?
From the Times -

SHOP fronts blown in, roofs torn clean off, trees crashing, firefighters and ambulance crews attending the damage and the injured. This was Birmingham soon after 3pm yesterday.

It was not a terrorist attack that struck the Moseley and Kings Heath areas, south of the city centre; it was a small but vicious tornado.

Within ten minutes it was all over but the freak weather left a trail of damage and so many injuries that paramedics had to set up an emergency triage centre at the scene.

At least a dozen people were taken to hospital, although only three were reported to be seriously injured. More than 50 ambulance staff responded to a huge number of emergency calls.

- Read More -

Is this another sign of global warming?

2005-07-29T23:12:00.000-04:00

ITHACA, N.Y. (AP) - This will come as little consolation for anybody who has steadfastly sworn that the sticky summer of 2005 has been the hottest ever:

You're right.

With two days left in this month, it's shaping up as the hottest June-July recorded in several eastern cities, according to data compiled by the Northeast Regional Climate Center at Cornell University.

The statewide average in June was 69.5 degrees, a whopping 5.5 degrees warmer than normal.

"That's a very significant departure," said Keith Eggleston, regional climatologist with the climate center.

The summer heat wave that has cloaked much of the country has been blamed for at least 40 deaths, most in the Phoenix area.

- Read More -

2005-07-27T18:13:00.000-04:00

BOMBAY, India (AP) - India's financial capital was paralyzed Wednesday by the strongest rains ever recorded in Indian history, with torrential downpours - 37 inches in one day - marooning drivers, forcing students to sleep at school and snapping communication lines. At least 200 people died.

At its worst, the rainfall descended in what looked like a solid wall of water, overwhelming Bombay, a crowded city long accustomed to monsoon rains.

"Never before in Bombay's history has this happened," said Police Commissioner A.N. Roy. "Our first priority is to rescue people stranded in floods."

"Approximately 200 dead bodies have already been recovered in the state," deputy chief minister R.R. Patil told The Associated Press, adding that an additional 100 deaths were feared across Maharashtra state, where Bombay is the capital.

- Read More-

Tropical Storm Gert makes landfall, Franklin stalls

2005-07-24T23:29:00.000-04:00

So, the latest on our tropical friends? Gert has come ashore as a minimal tropical storm and done little besides dampen somebody's Domingo. Franklin really can't decide what to do. Heavy shear has reduced him to 45 mph and 1005 mb yet he has recently stalled and began to retrograde back to the southwest. None of the models forecasted this type of motion. While somebody may be thinking "Oh, the BAM did it!", the BAM never called for it to move northeast in the first place. Oh well! I am going on a little trip this week but will be checking in whenever I can. Until there Jordan will hold down the fort and keep everyone up to date. Enjoy your week!

Large earthquake near Nicobar Islands

2005-07-24T13:40:00.000-04:00

Magnitude 7.0
Date-Time Sunday, July 24, 2005 at 15:42:05 (UTC) - Coordinated Universal Time
Sunday, July 24, 2005 at 09:12:05 PM local time at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones
Location 7.93N 92.15E
Depth 10.0 kilometers
Region NICOBAR ISLANDS, INDIA REGION

Tsunami generation is possible but seems unlikely. This earthquake is a little weak but is in the right location and depth.

Tropical Storm Gert forms in the Gulf

2005-07-24T02:13:00.000-04:00

Ok, so we still have a full week left of July and we are already at G? Incredible. Check out the graphic below for the forecast track of Tropical Storm Gert. The special advisory to upgrade the storm listed Gert at 40 mph amd 1009 mb. Little change in intensity is expected as Gert is surrounded by land and running out of ocean.

Tropical Storm Franklin encounterting heavy shear, TD Seven strengthening

2005-07-24T01:02:00.000-04:00

The latest advisory on Tropical Storm Franklin has weakend the storm to 65 mph and 1003 mb. Right now the core of the storm is encountering heavy shear related to the trough nearby. The lower-level and mid-level lows are becoming decoupled and the storm seems to be foundering. Franklin should continue to weaken but thus far has refused to obey reason.

On the other hand, Tropical Depression Seven is behaving quite nicely. The center of circulation is currently in the southern Gulf of Mexico and moving towards Mexico. Sustained winds are at 35 mph and the central pressure is 1009 mb. Convection is increasing and the depression is becoming better organized. However, the depression is very close to the coast and running out of time before landfall. Tropical Storm Warnings have been posted for the Mexican coast in anticipation of the formation of Tropical Storm Gert. Gert should make landfall as a very weak tropical storm.

Tropical Depression Seven forms in the Gulf

2005-07-23T15:40:00.000-04:00

NHC is currently issuing advisories on Tropical Deppression Seven currently located near Mexico. More will follow.

Tropical Storm Franklin expected to become a hurricane

2005-07-23T15:28:00.000-04:00

Despite a very high central pressure of 1001 mb, Franklin is nearing hurricane strength with winds of 70 mph. Franklin has shown extreme resilience to vertical wind shear and intensified in the face of unfavorable conditions look for Franklin to become a hurricane later today as he heads towards Bermuda. However, the BAM model still has it out for Florida and brings the storm back west.

Status Quo with Franklin

2005-07-22T23:11:00.000-04:00

I have been avoiding making a post about Franklin because there is very little new to say. Right now Tropical Storm Franklin remains at 50 mph but pressure is down to 1003 mb. The storm should be blown off to the northeast soon and will eventually pass over cooler water. I actual suspect that Franklin may be blow apart in a few days but I will keep watch.

Record heat in Wyoming, flights cancelled in due to heat

2005-07-22T00:49:00.000-04:00

From the Associated Press:

Casper tied its highest temperature ever with a reading of 104 degrees on Saturday, a day that saw records broken across much of central Wyoming.

The National Weather Service reported that seven stations in central Wyoming broke their July 16 record-high readings: Greybull (105 degrees, previously 102), Casper (104, previously 100), Riverton Airport, (101, previously 100), downtown Riverton (101, previously 99), Lander (100, previously 98), Rock Springs (95, previously 94) and Big Piney (90, previously 88).

If you thought that you'd seen it all, airlines are actually having to cancel or scale back flights due to the heat. From Bloomberg:

Airlines canceled flights or lightened passenger loads because the hot air wasn't dense enough to support takeoff. UAL Corp.'s United Airlines canceled seven flights in Denver yesterday because of the heat, spokesman Jeff Green said.

``It's rare that we have to take these types of cancellations out of our Denver hub,'' Green said. Flights affected were on smaller aircraft flying into mountain towns, he said.

Mesa Air Group Inc., which flies regional jets as America West Express out of Las Vegas, canceled 11 flights from that city each day on July 18 and 19, spokeswoman Linda Larsen said.

At high temperatures, ``the air entering the engine becomes less dense, so the engine must intake a larger volume of air to attain the same output,'' Larsen said. At certain temperatures and altitudes aircraft can get beyond their operating capabilities, requiring less weight or cancellation, she said.

Oh, and for those of you who are hoping the end is in sight, check out the graphic below from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. Yes, all the red means its going to be hot for a while. God bless SUV's and global warming.

Tropical Storm Franklin forms near the Bahamas

2005-07-21T23:45:00.000-04:00

I am very disappointed that Forecaster Franklin was not the one to issue the first advisories on Tropical Storm Franklin. Recon reports that Tropical Storm Franklin currently has sustained winds of 45 mph and a central pressure of 1009 mb. Franklin is forecast to gradually intensify to near hurricane strength over the next few days as he wanders off the East Coast. Right now there are a lot of uncertainties about the strength of the surrounding ridge and interactions with upper-level steering currents. As you can see in the model chart below, there is no consensus on the track of Franklin like we have been used to this year. Sea surface temperatures in this area are plenty warm enough to sustain strengthening so at this point the best we can do is wait to see what Franklin does.

Tropical Storm Franklin?

2005-07-21T16:17:00.000-04:00

SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
227 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2005

A SHIP IN THE VICINITY OF THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED JUST EAST
OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS HAS RECENTLY ESTIMATED WINDS TO TROPICAL
STORM FORCE.  SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM THE BAHAMAS
INDICATE THIS SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
TODAY.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO DETERMINE IF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A
TROPICAL STORM HAS DEVELOPED.

It is becoming increasingly clear that Tropical Storm Franklin is forming just east of the Bahamas. A look at the satellite image seems to clearly show rotation in the system. A hurricane hunter is en route to check out the system. Right now the models don't seem to have a very good handle on the system but their consensus curves it harmlessly out to sea.

Heat wave grips the Southwest

2005-07-20T21:48:00.000-04:00

The death toll in Phoenix is up to 18 today after record heat has scorched the city. Eleven of those reported dead were homeless and another two were elderly. Typically those most at risk during heat waves are those who work outside. Interestingly enough, illegal immigrants who die in the heat trying to enter the country are not counted in the official statistics of those killed due to the heat. So far this month, the average high in Phoenix remains of 110 degrees!

Below are the temperatures as of 5:00PM PDT today (20-July-2005).

Today tied the record all-time high in Denver where temperatures reached 105 degrees.

Since Friday it has been over 127 degrees every day in Death Valley, CA, with today reaching 129 degrees. The record high in Death Valley and for the entire U.S. is 134 degrees and the world record set in Libya is 136 degrees. For the record, the hot temperatures in Death Valley are not much more impressive than those in Denver due to difference in elevation. Temperatures typically drop about 2.5 degrees Fahrenheit per 1000 feet you go up in the atmosphere. We call this the environmental lapse rate. However, if you were to lift an air parcel up in the atmosphere without condensing out any moisture or exchanging heat (the dry adiabatic lapse rate), the actual cooling rate would be 5.4 degrees F per 1000 feet. The reason that the environmental lapse rate is slower than the dry adiabatic lapse rate is because heat is added to the air as it cools during ascent if water begins to condense. Death Valley is 240 feet below sea level while Denver is 5,431 feet above sea level, thus giving an elevation difference of 5,671 feet. If you account for the environmental lapse rate, this would provide for a 14.2 degree F difference, or 30.6 degrees by the dry adiabatic lapse rate. Today Death valley was only 24 degrees warmer than Denver, in the middle of the two lapse rates.

Emily now a tropical storm, Eugene discontinued

2005-07-20T21:22:00.000-04:00

Things are quieting back down in the tropics again. Emily is now a tropical storm and raining herself out in the Pacific. Tropical Storm Emily is over Mexico and continues to rain herself out.

Thus far there have been 7 reported fatalities from Emily. One person was killed in Grenada, 4 were killed in mudslides in Jamaica, and two pilots were killed in a helicopter crash while evacuating a Pemex oil rig off the coast of Mexico.

Right now the only interesting thing in the tropics is a tropical wave near Pureto Rico and Hispanola. However, this system is not expected to develop. Of course the hurricane hunters wouldn't let that keep them bored, they are planning to pay it a visit tomorrow. If anything were to develop with this system, it would travel up over the Bahamas and harmlessly our to sea. I guess all this early season action has the hurricane hunters ready to jump at the first thunderstorm is hopes of kicking up a hurricane.