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May 19, 2005

Adrian Update: 500PM EDT

Adrian has strengthened with sustained 85MPH winds, a drop in pressure to 983mb and a tightened eye to 10nm as she approaches El Salvador and Guatemala.

Contrary to what was reported earlier (sourced from Todd Gross of WHDH-TV Boston) "Only if the system maintains tropical cyclone status throughout its passage over land would it retain the name Adrian in the Atlantic Basin" (From Discussion 10). If she does not maintain tropical cyclone status (tropical storm or above) Hurricane Adrian would then be called Tropical Depression 1.

To reiterate:
IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT THE BIGGEST THREAT FROM ADRIAN IS TORRENTIAL RAINFALL... WHICH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING AND POTENTIALLY DEVASTATING MUD SLIDES OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRIAN OF CENTRAL AMERICA.

5PM EDT Advisory for Hurricane Adrian
HURRICANE ADRIAN ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT THU MAY 19 2005

...ADRIAN HEADING FOR CENTRAL AMERICA WITH 85 MPH WINDS...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF GUATEMALA FROM SIPACATE EASTWARD ALONG THE EL SALVADOR COAST TO THE EL SALVADOR-HONDURAS BORDER.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF HONDURAS...INCLUDING THE GOLFO DE FONSECA...AND FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF GUATEMALA FROM SIPACATE WESTWARD TO THE GUATEMALA-MEXICO BORDER.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AMERICA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

AT 2 PM PDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ADRIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 90.3 WEST OR ABOUT 90 MILES... 150 KM... SOUTHWEST OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR.

ADRIAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH... 15 KM/HR... AND A GENERAL NORTHEASTWARD MOTION...WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED... IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK... THE CENTER OF ADRIAN WILL REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA LATER TONIGHT.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH... 140 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS... IN A SMALL AREA JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER. ADRIAN IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRONGER WINDS... ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS... ARE LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY BEFORE LANDFALL.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM... FROM THE CENTER... AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES... 110 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 983 MB... 29.03 INCHES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES... WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF NEAR 20 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS... CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH ADRIAN. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES... CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
Tracking God's Fury:
ATLANTIC
Tropical Storm Maria
Tropical Storm Nate
Hurricane Ophelia
EASTERN PACIFIC
  • None
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