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June 30, 2005

The sea is becoming less salty

I am seriously considering implementing a Fark-like tag here. There is another article about global climate change altering our oceans. Now we have finally quantified the dilution of ocean waters. It turns out that the ocean is becoming less salty. This is not a very complex idea to understand here. However, combined with recent evidence about the possible INCREASE of ice pack in the Antarctic as warmer air leads to higher water content and more precipitation, I wonder how this will trend in the long term.

Hurricane danger on this rise

Max Mayfield, the head of NHC, recently spoke to Congress about the danger of hurricanes being on the rise. Can somebody please chalk this one up under the "No shit" category?

June 29, 2005

Could global climate change lead to increased ice?

A new article in JGR (Journal of Geophysical Research) is postulating that global warming could actually lead to increased ice in some areas. This raises an interesting question into whether or not such negative feedback mechanisms could actually reverse global warming naturally. Currently we actually think that the positive feedback mechanisms outway the negative based on thousands of years of climate records. However, if encouraged, these negative feedback mechanisms could help us fight the greenhouse warming that we are now very sure is upon us.

This has made me wonder how much this could be linked to the drying of hundreds of lakes across the arctic as the globe has warmed.

June 28, 2005

Two tropical cyclone updates


NHC has downgraded Calvin in the Atlantic and begun issuing advisories on TD TWO in the Gulf of Mexico. Expect TD TWO to be quickly renamed Tropical Storm Brett and almost immediately make landfall in Mexico. This system is very weak and should pose little threat to Mexico.

Calvin update

CALVIN HAS BEEN MOVING JUST SLIGHTLY NORTH OF DUE WEST AT A FASTER
FORWARD SPEED...NEAR 11 KT. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL REMAIN
EMBEDDED IN A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS SO A
CONTINUED MAINLY WESTWARD TRACK IS FORECAST. THIS IS A LITTLE
FASTER THAN...BUT OTHERWISE SIMILAR TO...THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST.

THE CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS UNIMPRESSIVE AND THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT
35 KT...IN LINE WITH DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES...ALTHOUGH
THIS MAY BE GENEROUS. THERE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PROSPECT FOR
RESTRENGTHENING SINCE EASTERLY SHEAR WILL PERSIST OVER THE SYSTEM
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS LIKELY AFTER A
DAY OR SO WHEN CALVIN TRAVERSES COOLER WATERS.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR MEXICO IS DISCONTINUED...AND PUBLIC
ADVISORIES ON THIS SYSTEM ARE BEING TERMINATED.

June 27, 2005

TS Calvin forms in the Eastern Pacific


Calvin is expected to head slowly out to sea so I wouldn't worry.

June 26, 2005

TD 3E has formed


Tropical Depression 3E has formed in the Pacific. At this time it looks to move out to sea and strengthen into a week hurricane.

June 25, 2005

Special Tropical Disturbance

SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
430 PM EDT 25 JUN 2005

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAS BEEN
INVESTIGATING THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CENTERED ABOUT 250
MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON. DATA RECEIVED
FROM THE AIRCRAFT THUS FAR INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS NEITHER A
WELL-DEFINED WIND CIRCULATION NOR CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE...BUT HAS
DEGENERATED TO A TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROADER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

DESPITE THE LACK OF ORGANIZATION...THE SYSTEM IS PRODUCING WINDS TO
NEAR 35 MPH IN SOME OF THE HEAVIEST THUNDERSTORMS WELL OFFSHORE.
ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD.

Tropical system forming off US southeast coast


NHC has scheduled an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft to investigate a very sharp tropical wave off the east coast of the US. Please be aware that NHC may being issuing tropical cyclone advisories today when the hurricane hunters report. Residents of the southeast coast of the US should pay close attention to the development of this system. Should a cyclone form, the Carlonias look to be especially threatened.

June 24, 2005

Beatriz discontinued

DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN ABSENT FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS...AND THE
DEPRESSION IS DISSIPATING INTO A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS. INITIAL
MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 290/8...AND THE REMNANT LOW SHOULD SLOW DOWN
SOME MORE AND TURN WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS LOW-LEVEL
STEERING CURRENTS WEAKEN. AN EVENTUAL DRIFT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST
OR EVEN SOUTH COULD OCCUR BEFORE THE LOW DISSIPATES IN TWO TO THREE
DAYS...IF IT COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A NEW CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION THAT IS FORECAST BY SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS TO
DEVELOP FARTHER EAST.

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON BEATRIZ. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THE
REMNANT LOW CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO
HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.

June 23, 2005

Beatriz now weakening

AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF
BEATRIZ HAS BECOME EXPOSED EAST OF AN AREA OF WEAK AND POORLY
ORGANIZED CONVECTION. WHILE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN
55 KT...A 1316Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS SHOWED AT BEST 45 KT WINDS...
POSSIBLY RAIN-CONTAMINATED...IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. BASED
ON THE DECAY IN THE CLOUD PATTERN SINCE THEN...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 40 KT. THE STORM IS MOVING INTO COOLER
WATER AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
REVISED TO HAVING BEATRIZ BECOME A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW IN 72
HR...AND IT MAY WEAKEN FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 290/11. BEATRIZ SHOULD TURN MORE WESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT 48 HR AS IT WEAKENS AND THE LOW-LEVEL STEERING
BECOMES DOMINANT. MOST DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE TURNS THE REMNANTS OF
BEATRIZ SOUTHWARD AFTER 48 HR IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER CYCLONE
FORMING TO THE EAST. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN FORECASTING
GENESIS AND IN FORECASTING HOW CLOSE THE TWO SYSTEMS MAY BE...THE
TRACK FORECAST WILL CALL FOR A MORE GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST AFTER 48 HR.

THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN REVISED DOWNWARD BASED ON THE QUIKSCAT
DATA.

Beatriz peaking out

BEATRIZ APPEARS TO HAVE REACHED PEAK INTENSITY THIS MORNING NEAR 45
KT. A TRMM OVERPASS NEAR 07Z DEPICTS A SHEARED SYSTEM WITH THE
ESTIMATED CENTER BENEATH THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...
WHICH HAS DECREASED SINCE 09Z. WHILE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
REMAIN 55 KT...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT DUE TO THE
LOCATION OF THE SURFACE CENTER RELATIVE TO THE DETERIORATING
CONVECTIVE PATTERN.

THE TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING AT AN ESTIMATED 295/12 AND SHOULD CROSS
THE 26C SEA SURFACE ISOTHERM LATER TODAY...AS IT ENTERS AN
INCREASINGLY STABLE AND DRY ENVIRONMENT. THIS MOTION IS A LITTLE
TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. TIME HAS JUST ABOUT
RUN OUT FOR ANY FURTHER INTENSIFICATION...AND GIVEN THE RECENT
DECREASE IN CONVECTION A WEAKENING TREND COULD BE IMMINENT. SHIPS
GUIDANCE MAINTAINS A TROPICAL STORM THROUGH 48 HOURS...WHILE THE
GFDL DOES SO ONLY FOR ONLY 12 MORE HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THESE SOLUTIONS. BEYOND ABOUT 24
HOURS...BEATRIZ SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND TURN TOWARD THE WEST AS THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH BREAKS DOWN...AND THE EVENTUAL REMNANT
LOW SHOULD THEN DRIFT WESTWARD ALONG WITH THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE
WINDS.

June 22, 2005

Tropical Storm Beatriz forms


Tropical Storm Beatriz has formed in the Pacific. The storm is expected to gradually intensify before moving over cooler waters in a couple days.

June 21, 2005

Tropical Depression Two-E forms in the Pacific


UPDATE: TD 2E is gaining strength and currently posted at 30 kts. I expect that it will be upgraded to tropical storm strength as early as the next advisory. The system is headed out to see and towards colder water so I doubt anyone actually cares...

From NHC:
THE DISTURBANCE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO HAS GRADUALLY BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY...WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SMALL AREA OF
PERSISTENT CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND MODEST CONVECTIVE
BANDING. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AT 18Z INCLUDED A 2.0 FROM TAFB
AND 1.5 FROM AFWA. QUIKSCAT DATA FROM THIS MORNING SHOWED A BROAD
CIRCULATION ABOUT AN ILL-DEFINED CENTER...WHICH WE BELIEVE HAS
TIGHTENED UP SOME SINCE THEN. WHILE THE CONVECTION IS STILL A BIT
ON THE THIN SIDE...THERE IS ENOUGH TO INITIATE ADVISORIES AT THIS
TIME.

BECAUSE THE CENTER IS STILL IN THE FORMATIVE STAGES...THE INITIAL
MOTION IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...BUT ESTIMATED TO BE 280/8. THE
DEPRESSION IS SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...WITH A WEAK RIDGE FORECAST TO REMAIN
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER THAT...
GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT STEERING CURRENTS SHOULD WEAKEN
IN ADVANCE OF A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH NEAR 130 WEST. BY THEN...THE
CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING PAST THE 26C ISOTHERM AND RESPONDING TO THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GFDL AND
GFS SOLUTIONS THROUGH 72 HOURS AND FOLLOWS THE SHALLOW BAM TRENDS
THEREAFTER.

EASTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT RATE IN THE
SHORT TERM...WITH COOLER SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES DOING SO BY 72
HOURS. NEITHER THE SHIPS NOR THE GFDL GUIDANCE BRINGS THE SYSTEM
UP TO 50 KT. HOWEVER...THE DEPRESSION HAS A LARGE CIRCULATION
ENVELOPE AND GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE CLOSELY.

June 20, 2005

Global Warming legislation is gaining ground

For the first time since President Bush rejected the Kyoto Protocol, global warming legislation is gaining ground in the Senate. This represents a big shift in the government lag behind science in recognizing global climate change as a real and present danger. Understanding global climate change is a definite challenge that we have yet to master. For example, during the late twentieth century, greenhouse warming was being counteracted by a dimming of the Earth caused by increased aersol levels. Now that aerosol levels are decreasing we can expect to see increased warming. These decreasing aersol levels over the North Atlantic have been tied to the returns of monsoonal rains to the Sahel of Africa, bringing close to a long drought and famine that killed millions of people there. Also, we now recognize that solar cycles seem to play a significant role in climate cycles. Thermohaline ocean circulations also seem to play a significant role in hurricane cycles. The most likely case for the future is the development of a permanent El Nino pattern in the Pacific which may lead to the failure of tropical trade winds and actually LESS hurricane activity in the long run.

National Weather Service to begin lake rip current warnings

The National Weather Service will soon begin issuing its first warnings about rip currents in the Great Lakes. While most people associate rip currents with oceanic storms, they can occur in any weather and even in lakes. Many people are not educated about the dangers in rip currents, especially in the center of the country where they typically are not an issue. Each year rip currents kill around 100 people, which is more than tornadoes and lightning combined! A rip current forms when intense surf pushed water up against a beach and it often becomes trapped behind a sand bar. The build up of water will eventually punch a hole through the sand bar and the water will funnel down the beach creating a strong current leading directly out to sea. Luckilly rip currents are very narrow. If you ever find yourself being swept out to sea in a rip current, do not swim into the current. Swim along the shore as the current tends to be very narrow. Eventually you will reach and area when the current subsides and then you can swim back into shore.

June 17, 2005

Florida tourism remains high


It turns out that despite being continually bombarded by hurricanes, as Florida has returned to their climatologically normal, tourism is still high. Apparently people like wet vacations.

June 16, 2005

Natural selection at it's finest...


Darwinism:
NAVARRE BEACH, Fla. -- A Louisiana man who decided to ride out a severe thunderstorm while on this Panhandle beach died when hit by lightning, sheriff's officials said Wednesday.

The 64-year-old man's identity was not immediately released. He was from Gretna, La., deputies said.

And this is on a beach I've visited every year since I was 2. Wow people are dumb.

June 15, 2005

Most people read this post, but few believe it

The Associated Press is reporting a new poll that shows that most people listen to weather forecasts but don't believe them. What is the point of me explaining any more? You won't listen to me. This goes back to my undergrad meteorology program where the department motto was "Even if you're right, nobody will believe you."

The Ivan clean-up continues

For more on how parts of the Gulf Coast are still cleaning up from Ivan today, read here.

June 14, 2005

7.0+ Earthquake Off Cali Coast

  • Quake Map
  • Shake Map
  • News Wire
  • Preliminary Report
    A major earthquake occurred at 7:50:54 PM (PDT) on Tuesday, June 14, 2005.

    The magnitude 7.0 event occurred 146 km (91 miles) WSW of Crescent City, CA.

    The hypocentral depth is 10km (6 miles).
  • A tsunami warning was in effect from the California-Mexico border north to Vancouver but was later called off.

  • Stanford Seismograph
  • Largest Wave EVER

    Largest wave ever occurred during Hurricane Ivan.
    When seafarers described them in tones of awe, sceptical landlubbers dismissed them as fantasy. Now scientists believe that they have evidence of the largest wave yet recorded.

    It happened on September 16 last year when Hurricane Ivan stormed across the Gulf of Mexico and tore into the coast of Alabama, accompanied by 130mph winds and storm surges 8ft high.

    While still out at sea, oceanographers report, the hurricane also produced a series of giant waves, one of which stood 91ft (27m) from crest to trough, the height of a ten-storey building and a new world record for a wave recorded by instruments.

    It's hot and I'm cheap


    This has been posted on Slashdot and Fark but I think it's awesome: Do It Yourself Air Conditioning for under $25!

    June 13, 2005

    In the news today - 7:45 om EDT

    System developing in the Caribean - 5:45 pm EDT


    Could Brett be on the way? As I discussed before, in the same area that bore Arlene, another tropical system seems to be developing. A hurricane hunter has already been scheduled to check it out.

    From NHC:
    AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL
    CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTHEAST OF JAMAICA IS ASSOCIATED
    WITH A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME A
    LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON...AND REPORTS FROM TWO NOAA
    BUOYS INDICATE SURFACE PRESSURES ARE LOWER THAN NORMAL AND ARE
    CONTINUING TO SLOWLY FALL IN THE AREA. SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
    OF THE SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES
    SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
    IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TOMORROW...IF NECESSARY.

    June 12, 2005

    Arlene spawning tornadoes... in Indiana!



    Rainfall totals for Indiana - One location has had over 5" of rainfall from the storm.

    Two tornadoes have touched down so far, one in Jennings, IN and one in Jefferson, IN.

    Arlene, We Hardly Knew Ye - updated 12:00pm EDT


    Tropical Storm Arlene has left without even saying good-bye. Now all eyes turn to the Caribbean where another area of thunderstorms is currently brewing. However, upper level winds in this region are not favorable for development. However, surface pressures in this area are unusually low and the next couple of days could show a different picture as the disturbance drifts over the same area that bore Arlene.

    From NHC:
    THERE ARE TWO DISTINCT AREAS OF DISTURBED WEATHER IN THE TROPICS
    TODAY. THE FIRST ONE IS THE LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS
    OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA THAT HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD
    FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF SURFACE CIRCULATION
    BUT SURFACE PRESSURES ARE LOW IN THE AREA. A SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS
    POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE DISTURBANCE DRIFTS
    TOWARD THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

    THE OTHER ONE IS A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS CENTERED
    ABOUT 450 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PRIMARILY
    ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT
    FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.

    Elsewhere, the east Pacific and rest of the Atlantic look quiet.

    Flooding and up to half a foot of rain is expected to fall in the Mississippi River Valley in the next day or so.

    Interestingly, last years first named storm 'Alex' didn't form until August. Of course, we all remember another late 'A' storm -- Andrew. He didn't hit until late August 1992. This looks to be a busy season...

    UPDATE: 11:50 pm EDT - NOAA surface buoyees in the Caribbeans have been reporting continuously falling surface pressures throughout the day. I am looking for Brett around here somewhere...

    June 11, 2005

    Landfall - 5:00 PM CDT



    The rain and wind is starting to move into the Mobile and Pensacola areas this morning. We're waiting on the 11AM advisory which should sort out if Arlene will become a hurricane or not but it's looking like it'll stay a tropical storm.

    BRYAN UPDATE: I can't big to explain how let down I am here...

    BRYAN UPDATE: You will notice that Arlene developed an eye at landfall. At the same time she became much more organized. Given 12 more hours over the ocean, and we would have been dealing with a MUCH more powerful storm. It is a shame that Arlene got her act together just a little too late.

    Arlene update - 8:40 am EDT

    Arlene seems to have weakened significantly overnight. I am still waiting for a fresh convection flare. If that happens, Arlene could still become a hurricane, otherwise the dry air and increased shear are going to rip it to bits.

    Arlene and Ivan... a twin killing?

    Check out the similar tracks of Hurricane Ivan (September of 2004) and (soon-to-be) Hurricane Arlene:



    June 10, 2005

    Arlene continues to strengthen, Hurricane Warnings issued - 10:00 pm CDT

    NHC has issued Hurricane Warnings for parts of the Gulf Coast from Pascagoula, Mississippi to Destin, Florida. Winds are now sustained at 60 kts, gusting to 75 kts and central pressure is down to 989 mb. At this time, the upgrade of Arlene to a hurricane seems imminent. However, in the latest few shots, Arlene is looking a lot more ragged. We may be seeing the influence of land and drier air already.

    UPDATE: A new circulation center seems to be forming to the northeast of the old center. If there is another convection flare, things could get interesting again.

    UPDATE: I think I am going to wait and see what happens here. It seems like every time we see a convection flare, the storm reorganizes itself slightly and strengthens a bit. Remember, in a tropical system, the true judge of strength in the central pressure (which has been dropping).

    Watch Arlene come ashore - 9:00 pm CDT

    Arlene nearing hurricane strength - 8:00 pm EDT


    Ok boys and girls, it looks like Hurricane Arlene will be making landfall tomorrow. The central pressure is dropping, winds are increasing, and the central convection is becoming better organized. The central convection is much more focused around the circulation center. Look for hurricane warnings in the near future.

    The 8PM Advisory from NHC:

    ARLENE IS NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 18 MPH...AND THIS
    GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
    THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ARLENE WILL BE APPROACHING THE NORTHERN
    COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO ON SATURDAY. ARLENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL
    STORM...AND MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED RAIN AND WINDS WILL ARRIVE MUCH
    EARLIER THAN THE CENTER.

    RECENT DATA FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE NOW INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...WITH
    HIGHER GUSTS...AND THESE WINDS ARE OCCURRING MAINLY TO THE NORTH
    AND EAST OF THE CENTER. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
    NEXT 24 HOURS...AND ARLENE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT
    OR ON SATURDAY.

    TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES... MAINLY
    TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

    THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE
    AIRCRAFT WAS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.

    Arlene gaining strength - 4:00 pm CDT

    DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
    SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...WITH HIGHER
    GUSTS...AND THESE WINDS ARE OCCURRING MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST
    OF THE CENTER. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
    HOURS...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ARLENE COULD REACH HURRICANE
    STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL.

    TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES... MAINLY
    TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

    Watches and Warnings posted for Gulf Coast



    As you can see above, Tropical Storm Watches, Tropical Storm Warnings, and Hurricane Watches now cover much of the Gulf Coast. Anybody ready for the next round? While I don't expect this storm to be a hurricane at landfall, it could be close. I will post more as I have a chance to take a closer look.

    Arlene is looking much healthier now that she is in the Gulf. You can still clearly see multiple centers in the visible satellite image. However, a recent flare in convection in the IR satellite shows that she is getting better organized and the circulation may be consolidating to the northeast. I am currently thinking that there is about a 40% chance that we will be talking about Hurricane Arlene at landfall. Currently winds are at 60 mph sustained and central pressure is 1000 mb.

    TS Arlene Update 2AM EDT

    The 2AM EDT Public Advisory for Tropical Storm Arlene notes:
    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED THIS MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. GULF COAST FROM SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

    With sustained winds of 40mph and tropical storm force winds extending up to 115 miles to the north and east of the storm center this storm is certainly not the worst we'll see this year but it is not something to ignore. Expect 3-5 inches of rain in the Florida Keys over the next 24 hours.

    TS Arlene now soaking South Florida... Here we go again! - 12:30am EDT


    Latest Radar Image

    Otherwise, this storm has been very boring. I expect some short term weakening due to the presence of Cuba. However, NHC is calling for gradual strengthening. We'll see. Look for Tropical Storm watches to be posted for the northern Gulf Coast later today.

    When Arlene goes away, I have seen some nice severe weather photos that I will post soon. They are sexy indeed.

    June 09, 2005

    The White House is defending its censorship of global warming reports - 9:40 pm EDT

    The Whitehouse today defended its actions in editing EPA reports supporting global warming and its link to fossil fuels. I will leave this up to you interpretation but it is my opinion that this was inexcusable. As a scientist and meterologist, I am ashamed to hear that politicians still try to deny that humans are causing global warming. Earlier this week, Tony Blair even tried to convince the Whitehouse that America needs to stop being the last hold out in admitting that we are causing the problem. Of course, I think certain members of this country need to accept evolution before we can even think about climate change.

    TS Warnings posted in Florida - 3:00pm EDT



    Tropical Storm Warnings have now been posted in the Dry Tortugas, Florida. Since nobody actually lives there and its only a park, nobody is likely to care.

    This is also virtually the exact same track that Hurricane Ivan took last September.

    TS Arlene has been born - 6:30am EDT

    A report from a ship in the area has caused NHC to increase TD One to Tropical Storm Arlene. I guess this means that last night I was right. Otherwise, my previous forecast continues to hold.

     
    ...SHIP REPORT INDICATES TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE HAS BECOME TROPICAL
    STORM ARLENE...THE FIRST TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2005 SEASON...

    AT 8 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS EXTENDED THE
    TROPICAL STORM WARNING EASTWARD TO INCLUDE THE CITY OF HAVANA AND
    HAVANA PROVINCE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR
    WESTERN CUBA FROM PINAR DEL RIO TO HAVANA PROVINCE...INCLUDING THE
    ISLE OF YOUTH.

    INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE
    SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
    THIS SYSTEM.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
    INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
    BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

    AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS
    LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.0 WEST OR ABOUT
    185 MILES... 295 KM...WEST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 190 MILES...
    305 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.

    ARLENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND THIS
    GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE
    IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION COULD BRING
    THE CENTER NEAR WESTERN CUBA TONIGHT.

    A REPORT FROM A SHIP BETWEEN THE CENTER OF ARLENE AND THE CAYMAN
    ISLANDS INDICATES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE HAVE INCREASED TO
    NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL SLOW
    STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

    TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES
    ...240 KM MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

    HEAVY RAINFALL...ACCOMPANIED BY SQUALLS...IS SPREADING ACROSS THE
    CAYMAN ISLANDS...AS WELL AS CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA. TOTAL
    RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS IN
    ASSOCIATION WITH ARLENE.

    MOISTURE FLOWING FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO ARLENE IS PRODUCING
    VERY HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...PARTICULARLY
    NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
    FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

    June 08, 2005

    Tropical update - 11:26 pm EDT



    Based on the latest IR image, to me it is clear that TD One had reached tropical storm strength. Look for tropical storm advisories to be issued soon. However, NHC's latest discussion seems to depict a different story.
    DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS INDICATE THAT THE
    DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY-ORGANIZED...WITH A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT
    WINDS NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER. THEY DID REPORT ONE 35 KT WIND AT
    THE 1000 FT FLIGHT LEVEL...ON THEIR LAST OUTBOUND LEG ABOUT 70 N MI
    NE OF THE CENTER. BASED ON THAT OBSERVATION...THE INTENSITY IS
    INCREASED TO 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
    HOWEVER...THE CLOUD PATTERN IS NOT IMPRESSIVE AND THE BANDING
    FEATURES WARRANT ONLY A T1.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. SOUTHWESTERLY
    SHEAR...ASSOCIATED WITH A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 90W...
    CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. SOME ABATEMENT OF THE
    SHEAR IS EXPECTED BUT GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
    UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL BE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR
    STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
    FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ONE. THIS IS A LITTLE HIGHER
    THAN THE SHIPS GUIDANCE...AND A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE GFDL
    FORECAST.
    They are far less impressed than I am. It will be interesting to see who will win. Also, Tropical Storm Warnings are now in effect for western Cuba.

    First tropical depression of the season forms in the Caribbean - 6:30 pm EDT


    The first tropical depression of the season has formed in the Caribbean. It is forecast to strengthen in a tropical storm in the near future. Tropical Storm Watches have already been posted for western parts of Cuba. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting the storm to eventually make landfall on the US Gulf Coast as a tropical storm. However, it is very possibile for it to reach hurricane strength by then.


    Below is a map of the area in question and current sea surface temperatures:

    Tropical depression forming in the Caribbean - 12:20 pm EDT


    It appears as if there is a tropical depression forming in the Caribbean. A hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to go take a look some time today. Be prepared for the possibility that the National Hurricane Center could issue advisories for a tropical depression or even a tropical storm by the end of the day today. While I do not expect a tropical storm to form today, a strong possibility exists for tropical storm formation in this area by the end of the week.

    Below is a map of the area in question and current sea surface temperatures:

    June 06, 2005

    Severe weather season off to a late start - 10:25 CDT



    It looks like the severe weather season is finally off to a late start. The last few days have seen many severe weather reports from across the country. Check with SPC's storm reports for more details.

    June 05, 2005

    The sky has fallen... - 2:40 am CDT


    Now that severe weather reports are finally coming in, it looks like SPC was right, the sky has fallen. Today has been the largest outbreak so far this year. Most details of the devestation and losses will follow as they become available. First estimates include 34 tornadoes, 103 reports of severe wind (over 50 mph), and 171 reports of severe hail (penny size or greater).

    June 04, 2005

    The sky is falling... - 1:25 CDT

    Ok guys, SPC thinks the sky is falling. Their current discussion is calling for a major severe weather outbreak today. Word has it that there will be severe thunderstorms and tornadoes for all tonight.

    Current Situation:















    Tracking God's Fury:
    ATLANTIC
    Tropical Storm Maria
    Tropical Storm Nate
    Hurricane Ophelia
    EASTERN PACIFIC
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