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July 17, 2005

Emily Nearing Yucatan

Hurricane Emily is past the Cayman's and is approaching the Yucatan Peninsula. Intensity remains 135mph as it has for the better part of the past 24 hours but central pressure is up to 955mb and she is showing some signs of deterioration. The eye is less distinct in satellite shots and the overall cloud pattern has become very little ragged.

The fact that the eyewall of Emily is showing up on the radar hours ago is very impressive. Radar beams travel out at a 0.5 degree elevation and the Earth also curves out from underneath the beam. For an eyewall to show up so far a way is a sign of a powerful hurricane. Of course, at this point the hurricane seems to have knocked out the radar in Cancun.

She is still over very warm water which is keeping her strength up and no changes in strength are forecast other than minor fluctuations which are to be expected in a hurricane this size. Emily will make landfall shortly and will then restrengthen into a Major Hurricane (Cat 3 or Above) once she re-enters the Gulf of Mexico. After that is less clear, but the models are calling for a hit on Northern Mexico just south of the US/Mexico border.

For more info: Forecast Map, Satellite Images, Advisories, Flight Recon Data
Tracking God's Fury:
Tropical Storm Maria
Tropical Storm Nate
Hurricane Ophelia
  • None
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    Ask Bryan:
    What steers hurricanes?
    What is eyewall replacement?
    Jordan Golson
    Bryan Woods