What Memorial Day is All About
posted by Jordan Golson at 11:59 PM
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StormTrack has moved: http://thestormtrack.com/
May 30, 2005
Hurricane Experts: Hurricanes not affected by global warming
Reuters:
If hurricanes again pound the United States this summer, their roar is likely to be accompanied by the din of another storm -- an angry debate among U.S. scientists over the impact of global warming.More...
Last season's $45 billion devastation, when 15 tropical storms spawned nine hurricanes in the Atlantic and Caribbean, prompted climatologists to warn of a link to warming temperatures.
But hurricane experts say the unusual series of hurricanes, four of which slammed into Florida in a six-week period, was the result of a natural 15- to 40-year cycle in Atlantic cyclone activity.
After a lull between 1970 and the mid-1990s, the number of storms picked up dramatically from 1995 and higher-than-normal activity is expected for the next five to 30 years as a phenomenon known as the "Atlantic multidecadal mode" holds sway.
"Really, for the folks that are doing work on hurricanes, there isn't a debate (about global warming)," said Chris Landsea of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's hurricane research division in Miami.
posted by Jordan Golson at 7:09 PM
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May 27, 2005
"Make that an iced coffee"
Make that an iced coffee. While the Northeast was bidding farewell to unseasonably chilly temperatures, Seattle residents dusted off the sunscreen and shorts Friday as the National Weather Service issued its first-ever heat advisory for the city.
The advisory covering the urban corridor from Tacoma north to Everett was prompted by a second day of record temperatures. Thursday's high temperature of 89 degrees at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport broke a 58-year-old record. A high of 87 was forecast for Friday.
posted by Jordan Golson at 8:39 PM
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May 24, 2005
Tornado Warning 7:07PM EDT
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
449 PM MDT TUE MAY 24 2005
COC125-242330-
/O.CON.KGLD.TO.W.0016.000000T0000Z-050524T2330Z/
YUMA CO-
449 PM MDT TUE MAY 24 2005
...A TORNADO WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 530 PM MDT FOR YUMA COUNTY...
AT 448 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 2 MILES WEST OF VERNON
APPROACHING VERNON. PEOPLE IN OR NEAR VERNON SHOULD TAKE SHELTER
IMMEDIATELY IN A BASEMENT OR ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME.
ABANDON MOBILE HOMES.
OTHER SEVERE STORMS WERE LOCATED NEAR IDALIA AND LAIRD WITH QUARTER
SIZE HAIL LIKELY IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WINDS.
THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
BEECHER ISLAND AROUND 510 PM MDT...
LAIRD AROUND 515 PM MDT...
IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS THUNDERSTORM WILL PRODUCE DAMAGING
WINDS RESULTING IN AREAS OF NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY IN BLOWING DIRT. USE
EXTREME CAUTION IF YOU MUST TRAVEL AND BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING
VISIBILITY.
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW! IF YOU WAIT
TO SEE OR HEAR IT COMING...IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO GET TO A SAFE PLACE.
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM MDT TUESDAY EVENING
FOR NORTHEASTERN COLORADO.
LAT...LON 4031 10251 3985 10266 3963 10261 3963 10207
4024 10206
posted by Jordan Golson at 7:06 PM
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Severe weather: 5/23/2005
Found this image on the Stormtrack.org Forums. It's from the storms north of Burlington, CO at sunset. Purty.
A pretty good day weather wise, no confirmed tornados but high winds in several areas and hail (including +2" in Yuma, Colorado) and a possible funnel cloud in Virginia.
posted by Jordan Golson at 3:34 AM
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May 23, 2005
Severe Weather Update - 235AM EDT
A severe thunderstorm watch was issued by the SPC for portions of northwestern Arkansas, south central and southeastern Kansas, southwestern Missouri and north central and northeastern Oklahoma.
Conditions are right for severe thunderstorm development and hail to 2.5 inches in diameter, wind gusts to 70 mph and dangerous lightning.
The watch is in effect until 5AM EDT.
Earlier this evening a Tornado Warning was issued for Cherokee County in east central Oklahoma and Wagoner County in northeast Oklahoma.
No tornados formed but golf-ball sized hail was reported in several counties in Kansas and New Mexico and winds up to 80mph in Cowley County, Kansas.
posted by Jordan Golson at 2:32 AM
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May 20, 2005
Adrian Update: 200AM EDT
The 2AM EDT Advisory was just released and estimated minimum central pressure is 987mb with 75mph sustained winds, maintaining her hurricane status. We predict weakening to continue through the night as the storm moves ashore.
posted by Jordan Golson at 2:00 AM
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May 19, 2005
Adrian Update: 1100PM EDT
According to the 11pm EDT advisory, Hurricane Adrian has maintained a central pressure of 985mb and maximum sustained winds of 80mph.
Adrian is becoming less organized but is still maintaining a strong central core of convection. Landfall is imminent at this point. Given the strong core still intact, this could be a messy situation. Those in the area should be vigilant. Look for Adrian to rapidly weaken once the center of circulation is inland.
Adrian is becoming less organized but is still maintaining a strong central core of convection. Landfall is imminent at this point. Given the strong core still intact, this could be a messy situation. Those in the area should be vigilant. Look for Adrian to rapidly weaken once the center of circulation is inland.
posted by Jordan Golson at 11:26 PM
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Adrian: United States Float3
NHC:
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES... WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF NEAR 20 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS... CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH ADRIAN. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
posted by Jordan Golson at 9:31 PM
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Adrian Update: 500PM EDT
Adrian has strengthened with sustained 85MPH winds, a drop in pressure to 983mb and a tightened eye to 10nm as she approaches El Salvador and Guatemala.
Contrary to what was reported earlier (sourced from Todd Gross of WHDH-TV Boston) "Only if the system maintains tropical cyclone status throughout its passage over land would it retain the name Adrian in the Atlantic Basin" (From Discussion 10). If she does not maintain tropical cyclone status (tropical storm or above) Hurricane Adrian would then be called Tropical Depression 1.
To reiterate:
5PM EDT Advisory for Hurricane Adrian
Contrary to what was reported earlier (sourced from Todd Gross of WHDH-TV Boston) "Only if the system maintains tropical cyclone status throughout its passage over land would it retain the name Adrian in the Atlantic Basin" (From Discussion 10). If she does not maintain tropical cyclone status (tropical storm or above) Hurricane Adrian would then be called Tropical Depression 1.
To reiterate:
IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT THE BIGGEST THREAT FROM ADRIAN IS TORRENTIAL RAINFALL... WHICH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING AND POTENTIALLY DEVASTATING MUD SLIDES OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRIAN OF CENTRAL AMERICA.
5PM EDT Advisory for Hurricane Adrian
HURRICANE ADRIAN ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT THU MAY 19 2005
...ADRIAN HEADING FOR CENTRAL AMERICA WITH 85 MPH WINDS...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF GUATEMALA FROM SIPACATE EASTWARD ALONG THE EL SALVADOR COAST TO THE EL SALVADOR-HONDURAS BORDER.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF HONDURAS...INCLUDING THE GOLFO DE FONSECA...AND FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF GUATEMALA FROM SIPACATE WESTWARD TO THE GUATEMALA-MEXICO BORDER.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AMERICA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
AT 2 PM PDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ADRIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 90.3 WEST OR ABOUT 90 MILES... 150 KM... SOUTHWEST OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR.
ADRIAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH... 15 KM/HR... AND A GENERAL NORTHEASTWARD MOTION...WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED... IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK... THE CENTER OF ADRIAN WILL REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA LATER TONIGHT.
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH... 140 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS... IN A SMALL AREA JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER. ADRIAN IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRONGER WINDS... ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS... ARE LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY BEFORE LANDFALL.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM... FROM THE CENTER... AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES... 110 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 983 MB... 29.03 INCHES.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES... WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF NEAR 20 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS... CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH ADRIAN. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES... CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
posted by Jordan Golson at 5:00 PM
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Adrian Update: Discussion 200PM EDT
2PM EDT Discussion for Hurricane Adrian
HURRICANE ADRIAN SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM PDT THU MAY 19 2005
IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT THE BIGGEST THREAT FROM ADRIAN IS TORRENTIAL RAINFALL... WHICH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING AND POTENTIALLY DEVASTATING MUD SLIDES OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRIAN OF CENTRAL AMERICA.
posted by Jordan Golson at 2:04 PM
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Adrian Update: 200PM EDT
2PM EDT Advisory for Hurricane Adrian
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ADRIAN SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM PDT THU MAY 19 2005
...AIR FORCE PLANE INDICATES THAT ADRIAN IS A HURRICANE...
AT 11 AM PDT... 1800Z... THE GOVERNMENTS OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR HAVE UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING TO A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF GUATEMALA FROM SIPACATE EASTWARD TO THE EL SALVADOR-HONDURAS BORDER.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF HONDURAS... INCLUDING THE GOLFO DE FONSECA... AND FOR GUATEMALA FROM SIPACATE WESTWARD TO THE GUATEMALA-MEXICO BORDER.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AMERICA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
AT 11 AM PDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ADRIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 90.6 WEST OR ABOUT 120 MILES... 195 KM... SOUTHWEST OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR.
ADRIAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH... 15KM/HR... AND A GENERAL NORTHEASTWARD MOTION...WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED... IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ADRIAN WILL BE VERY NEAR THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA LATER TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH... 120KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADRIAN IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRONGER WINDS... ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS... ARE LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES... 110 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF NEAR 20 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS... CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH ADRIAN. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES... CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
posted by Jordan Golson at 2:00 PM
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Adrian Update: 800AM EDT
8AM EDT Advisory for Tropical Storm Adrian
TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM PDT THU MAY 19 2005
...ADRIAN MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD CENTRAL AMERICA...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF EL SALVADOR. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF GUATEMALA AND THE PACIFIC COAST OF HONDURAS...INCLUDING THE GOLFO DE FONSECA.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AMERICA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
AT 5 AM PDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.3 WEST OR ABOUT 175 MILES...285 KM... SOUTHWEST OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR.
ADRIAN IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH... 14KM/HR... AND A GENERAL NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE FORECAST TRACK BRINGS THE CENTER OF ADRIAN VERY NEAR THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ADRIAN IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AT THE TIME OF LANDFALL. A UNITED STATES AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL FLY
INTO ADRIAN LATER TODAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF NEAR 20 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH ADRIAN. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
posted by Jordan Golson at 8:00 AM
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Adrian Update: 500AM EDT
5AM EDT Advisory for Tropical Storm Adrian
TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT THU MAY 19 2005
...ADRIAN MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF EL SALVADOR. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF GUATEMALA AND THE PACIFIC COAST OF HONDURAS...INCLUDING THE GOLFO DE FONSECA.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AMERICA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
AT 2 AM PDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.6 WEST OR ABOUT 215 MILES... 350 KM... SOUTHWEST OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR.
ADRIAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH... 11KM/HR... AND A GENERAL NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE FORECAST TRACK BRINGS THE CENTER OF ADRIAN VERY NEAR THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY LATE THURSDAY EVENING OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND ADRIAN IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AT THE TIME OF LANDFALL.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95KM FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB... 29.44 INCHES.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES... WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF NEAR 20 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS... CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH ADRIAN. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
posted by Jordan Golson at 5:00 AM
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Adrian Update: 200AM EDT
2AM EDT Advisory for Tropical Storm Adrian
TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM PDT WED MAY 18 2005
...ADRIAN HEADED FOR THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
COAST OF EL SALVADOR. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
PACIFIC COAST OF GUATEMALA AND THE PACIFIC COAST OF HONDURAS...
INCLUDING THE GOLFO DE FONSECA.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AMERICA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
AT 11 PM PDT... 0600Z... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 91.8 WEST OR ABOUT 230 MILES... 370 KM... SOUTHWEST OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR.
ADRIAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH... 13 KM/HR... AND A GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND ADRIAN COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE IT REACHES THE COAST.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF NEAR 20 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH ADRIAN. THIS SYSTEM ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL OVER OTHER PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVEL IS POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
posted by Jordan Golson at 2:00 AM
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May 18, 2005
Adrian Update: 1100PM EDT
11PM EDT Advisory for Tropical Storm Adrian
Technical Discussion from the National Hurricane Center
TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT WED MAY 18 2005
...ADRIAN HEADED FOR THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF EL SALVADOR. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF GUATEMALA AND THE PACIFIC COAST OF HONDURAS... INCLUDING THE GOLFO DE FONSECA.
INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AMERICA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
AT 8 PM PDT... 0300Z... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.2 NORTH LONGITUDE 92.0 WEST OR ABOUT 255 MILES... 410 KM... SOUTHWEST OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR.
ADRIAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH... 13 KM/HR... AND A GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST... AND ADRIAN COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE IT REACHES THE COAST.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB... 29.44 INCHES.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF NEAR 20 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH ADRIAN. THIS SYSTEM ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL OVER OTHER PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVEL IS POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
Technical Discussion from the National Hurricane Center
posted by Jordan Golson at 11:00 PM
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Adrian Update: 9:43pm EDT
AccuWeather:
The first tropical storm of the season in the eastern Pacific has formed. It is named Adrian and is located a few hundred miles south of Guatemala. Upper-level steering winds are pulling the storm toward the coast of Central America though, and Adrian is expected to make landfall along the coast of El Salvador later Thursday. The steering winds are not expected to change much into the weekend, so Adrian should remain on a northeasterly path. Although it will weaken considerable crossing the mountainous terrain of Central America, its moisture and at least some of its energy are expected to emerge into the western Caribbean Friday, and it could bring heavy rain toward Cuba this weekend.
posted by Jordan Golson at 9:43 PM
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TS Adrian Update: 8:00pm EDT
8PM EDT Advisory for Tropical Storm Adrian
TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM PDT WED MAY 18 2005
...ADRIAN MOVING CLOSER TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF EL SALVADOR. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF GUATEMALA AND THE PACIFIC COAST OF HONDURAS... INCLUDING THE GOLFO DE FONSECA.
INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AMERICA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
AT 5 PM PDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 92.1 WEST OR ABOUT 260 MILES... 420 KM... SOUTHWEST OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR.
ADRIAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO RESUME LATER TONIGHT WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND ADRIAN COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON THURSDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB... 29.44 INCHES.
OUTER RAINBANDS CONTAINING GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE ALREADY AFFECTING THE COASTAL AREAS OF GUATEMALA... AND SHOULD BEGIN AFFECTING EL SALVADOR TONIGHT. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES... WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF NEAR 20 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS... CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH ADRIAN. THIS SYSTEM ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL OVER OTHER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
posted by Jordan Golson at 8:00 PM
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Atlantic Hurricane Outlook
NOAA’s 2005 Atlantic hurricane season outlook indicates a 70% chance of an above-normal hurricane season, a 20% chance of a near-normal season, and only a 10% chance of a below-normal season. This outlook is produced by scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (CPC), Hurricane Research Division (HRD), and National Hurricane Center (NHC). See NOAA’s definitions of above-, near-, and below-normal seasons.For more information...
The outlook calls for 12-15 tropical storms, with 7-9 becoming hurricanes, and 3-5 of these becoming major hurricanes. The likely range of ACE index is 120%-190% of the median. This prediction reflects a very likely continuation of above-normal activity that began in 1995.
posted by Jordan Golson at 4:07 PM
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